The nuclear crisis and Japan's government
The response of Japan鈥檚 government to its multiple unfolding disasters has been better than its past performance in moments of crisis, but the country鈥檚 political leaders still have a long way to go to manage events well and win public confidence, MIT experts said in a public forum on Wednesday evening.
鈥淎s best as I can tell, people have been reasonably straightforward in revealing what is going on,鈥� said Kenneth Oye, an associate professor of political science who was in Japan during Friday鈥檚 earthquake and for a few days afterward. However, he noted, in the past Japan has had 鈥渁 culture and a system that has often valued secrecy and covered up problems,鈥� which has proven problematic in significant ways relating to the current crisis.
While the ongoing problems with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant remain extremely serious, in its overall emergency response for people affected by Friday鈥檚 earthquake and subsequent tsunami, 鈥渢he government has learned and benefitted from the mistakes of the past,鈥� said Richard Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science at MIT and director of the Center for International Studies. Samuels noted that 100,000 troops have been mobilized for the larger relief effort.
However, as Samuels also remarked, 鈥渋t remains to be seen if government will be up to the task.鈥�
Moreover, while government and industry leaders have viewed nuclear power as a logical option in a 鈥渞esource-poor鈥� country, Samuels noted, numerous problems in recent decades, including an accident and management-ordered cover-up at one plant in 1999, have eroded public trust on the issue. 鈥淭he public has been profoundly ambivalent about the introduction of nuclear power in Japan,鈥� Samuels said.
Snapshot: Tokyo during the quake
At the event, part of the Starr Forum series hosted by the Center for International Studies, Oye gave his first-hand account of the Japan earthquake. He was scheduled to meet Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Friday at 6 p.m. local time, as part of a delegation from the U.S.-Japan Council. When the earthquake hit, a few hours before, Oye was sitting in a bus in a parking lot, not close to any potential hazards.
Right after the quake, on Friday in Tokyo, 鈥減eople were calm,鈥� Oye said, and over the weekend, 鈥渓ife was relatively normal.鈥� But as the situation with the nuclear reactors worsened, by Monday 鈥渓ife was changing,鈥� Oye observed, with rolling blackouts to preserve energy, and a large portion of Japan鈥檚 mass-transit networks closed. This has resulted in a 鈥渟hutdown of the economy to a significant degree.鈥�
鈥淭he level of cooperation in terms of responding to crisis was really quite remarkable,鈥� said Oye, noting that villages in the north of Japan 鈥渟elf-organized鈥� to obtain water and provide sanitation, demonstrating a great 鈥渃ooperative spirit from below.鈥�
The fact that Tokyo鈥檚 buildings survived the main earthquake and its many large aftershocks is a 鈥渢estimony to the quality of building codes, the quality of engineering and the enforcement of those codes,鈥� Oye said. However, he drew a distinction between the vigilance Japan has showed in the area of earthquake safety and the relative lack of stringency it has shown in the area of nuclear power. 鈥淭he same country and the same political system which performed so beautifully in terms of seismic codes for buildings 鈥� is also the country which didn鈥檛 perform quite as well in terms of proactive responses鈥� regarding power plants, he said.
One reason for this, Oye suggested, is that since earthquakes are a recurring phenomenon in Japan, they provided a lot of natural feedback for 鈥渁 political system and a regulatory system that is designed to learn from experience.鈥� By contrast, he said, the 鈥渓ack of integrity and forthrightness鈥� about Japan鈥檚 earlier nuclear incidents 鈥渓ed to bad policy-making and bad responses to the accidents. You don鈥檛 respond well when you鈥檙e lying, because you鈥檙e lying to yourself as well as to others. And that鈥檚 what happened in some of the earlier accidents."
Still, Oye said, 鈥渋t is my view that things have improved,鈥� a judgment made in part by extensively talking to officials and observers of the government before leaving Japan on Tuesday.
What鈥檚 next?
The next phase of government action will depend on events at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Michael Golay, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT, summarized the situation at the plants during Wednesday鈥檚 forum, in part reprising information shared at a Tuesday discussion at MIT.
Showing design drawings of the types of reactors at risk, Golay again emphasized the problems caused by the lack of power to the plant, which has led to major problems cooling the active fuel rods and spent fuel rods at Fukushima Daiichi.
鈥淲ith any nuclear power plant today, if you lose power, you鈥檙e going to have this problem,鈥� Golay said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not contingent on the exact hardware here.鈥� Thus the notion that these reactors in Japan have had problems because they represent older technology 鈥渃an be exaggerated.鈥� Moreover, Golay said, 鈥渢he time to get the grid restored has been much longer than you鈥檇 want.鈥�
Due to the release of radiation from the reactors, an area of a radius about 12 miles around the plant has been evacuated, by order of the Japanese authorities, and those within 20 miles have been ordered to take shelter. Golay pointed out that if the situation dramatically worsened, however, an evacuation of Tokyo (with a metropolitan-area population of about 35 million lying roughly 130 miles away) was not a realistic scenario.
鈥淪hould there be a larger release of material 鈥� the primary option is going to be sheltering the public, and decontamination,鈥� Golay said.
As Golay noted, however, the situation is ever-shifting, and it is not possible to draw definite conclusions based on limited information from afar.
鈥淭his story is not over,鈥� concluded Golay.
This story is republished courtesy of MIT News (), a popular site that covers news about MIT research, innovation and teaching.
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