麻豆淫院

(麻豆淫院) -- The future of corn prices and the impact on fed livestock continues to be an unfolding, tumultuous situation, but some degree of clarity should be coming to the story in the next few weeks, according to a Texas AgriLife Extension Service economist.

鈥淭his is not just a supply situation, but demand as well,鈥� said Dr. Mark Welch, AgriLife Extension grains marketing economist, College Station. 鈥淲e are going to see some demand response to these high prices and need to carefully watch for that. What we need to see are these crop-condition reports every Monday leveling off and get an assessment of what is going to really happen.鈥�

Until then, Welch said corn prices will continue to hover at record levels, which puts pressure on feedlot operators to be profitable.

鈥淐an they cheapen up the prices they are paying for cattle to pay $8.50 to $9 a bushel for corn?鈥� Welch said. 鈥淚 think we will see the answer to this as well as some of the other factors weighing in on the markets in the coming weeks. I think we may see a strong push back on the use of corn, which is a natural response in this type of market environment.鈥�

Another area to watch, according to Dr. David Anderson, AgriLife Extension livestock marketing economist, College Station, are feedlot placement numbers in Nebraska versus Texas. Due to the Midwest drought, Nebraska could soon eclipse Texas in the numbers of cattle on feed.

鈥淭he drought across the plains and corn belt is leaving cattle with no place to go, in contrast to last year鈥檚 drought in the southern plains,鈥� Anderson said.  鈥淟ast year, cattle could go from Texas and Oklahoma to states that had grass.  Now the drought has hit those states.  Combined with skyrocketing corn prices, calf and feeder prices have declined dramatically, with southern plains 500- to 600-pound calf prices down about 22 percent in the last few weeks.

鈥淭he drought may leave calves with no place to go, but feedlots, at lower prices.  We may see more drought forced feedlot placements in Northern feedlots, closer to the drought-affected areas this year.鈥�

In the June U.S. Department of Agriculture cattle on feed report, Nebraska had 385,000 placements and Texas had 420,000 head.

Welch said if corn yields level off at 130 bushels per acre, he doesn鈥檛 expect carryover stocks to be any less than they are currently projected for the crop year just ending.

鈥淲e are not in crisis mode yet,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the role of high prices, to provide incentives for producers to produce more and users to use less.鈥�

Welch predicts there will be a 鈥渉uge acreage response next year鈥� in planted corn acres due to the current relation to supply and demand.

鈥淚 think we will see a few more wheat acres and more corn and soybeans, especially  across the South. Where cotton prices are right now, that 60-cent cotton competing against  soybeans in the teens, it doesn鈥檛 take a lot of pencil pushing to see where that鈥檚 going.鈥�

Unlike 2008, he said, crude oil prices are not surging to record highs and big investment funds haven鈥檛 added strongly to bullish bets, creating intense volatility in the grain markets.

鈥淲e鈥檝e got $90 a barrel oil and the other commodities, such as the metals, are in a downward trend,鈥� Welch said. 鈥淲e are not seeing big funds throwing money at the grain market like we did in 2008.鈥�