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When COVID-19 hit the U.S., many experts warned that America's colleges and universities could be devastated. Some of them predicted .

So far, those initial forecasts were worse than what has actually taken place. One month into the fall semester of the 2020-2021 academic year, overall enrollment was than at the same time a year earlier.

One kind of school, however, is faring better: for-profit colleges. Their average enrollment is .

In contrast, at public and private nonprofit four-year universities, enrollment fell by , respectively.

Enrollment has declined much more at community colleges, which had students this year. This change occurred even though community colleges would be more because of their lower costs and flexible transfer policies.

Factors behind the trend

Why are more students attending for-profit colleges in the middle of a pandemic?

This growth is even more surprising given that enrollment at for-profit schools—often criticized as being and – had fallen between 2015 and 2019.

As a , I see several factors at play.

For-profit colleges and universities tend to be highly experienced with remote learning, they have more flexibility to deploy financial resources as needed and they have enjoyed favorable policies under the Trump administration, which notably meant to hold them accountable for ensuring that graduates are gainfully employed.

Given the recent presidential election results, I also suspect the increase in for-profit enrollment may be . Graduates of for-profit colleges are , and President-elect Joe Biden has vowed to ."

Recognized in remote learning

More than – over one-fourth of the nation's postsecondary institutions—started the fall 2020 semester with some form of in-person instruction. But the face-to-face learning environment has been transformed by COVID-19 prevention measures: social distancing, mask wearing, virus testing requirements, hybrid attendance options and serious restrictions on extracurricular activities, such as sports and clubs.

What you may think of as the "traditional" college experience—where students live, learn and socialize in close physical proximity—is .

Rather than paying full tuition, housing expenses and—in some cases – for restricted in-person conditions, some students chose not to attend traditional colleges.

Others while attending classes on campus.

Although exact numbers are unknown, some opted for a "."

Facing a , others sought fully online programs that were more established than the "" options hastily implemented in the spring of 2020.

For better or for worse, for-profit universities are . That likely attracted some students seeking safe, reliable learning options during the pandemic.

Support for this idea can be found in the fact that—at universities with established online programs—fall 2020 undergraduate enrollments were compared with last year.

For-profits are part of this figure. However, a few nonprofit schools that have invested considerably in online education over the past decade also saw enrollment increases. These include public institutions, such as where I work, , as well as private nonprofits, such as and .

More unrestricted money

Many traditional universities incurred considerable costs to resume teaching and research safely on campus in the fall of 2020.

For example, North Carolina State University on measures to protect students, staff and faculty from COVID-19. Despite that investment, an outbreak forced administrators to only a few weeks after reopening.

For-profits have . For that reason, they did not need to spend nearly as much to operate safely this fall.

For-profits are also generally more than public and private nonprofit colleges and universities. They often maintain with minimal limitations on spending.

Nonprofit universities, especially publics, typically have less cash on hand because they tend to run on annual operating budgets that . And even those with significant endowments .

During the pandemic, for-profits have had more resources available than their counterparts. They subsequently expended more on marketing efforts. For example, of the 10 U.S. universities that spent at least $1.2 million on Google advertisements in March 2020, , even though for-profits represent only of all four-year institutions.

In addition to stepped-up advertising, for-profit institutions also when the pandemic hit. This gave students even more of an incentive to enroll.

Evolving federal policies

Over the past decade, shifting federal policy has had a major impact on for-profits' ability to attract students. During the 2008 recession, the sector experienced .

Unfortunately, and persuaded students to assume . Their promises misled thousands of graduates, who .

In response, the Obama administration implemented the "" rule. Schools were required to demonstrate that their graduates were employed and include employment figures in advertisements. Research shows the regulation relative to other sectors.

argued that for-profits were unfairly penalized by "gainful employment." The Trump administration agreed and officially . This policy change likely helped boost for-profits' enrollment in 2020.

In 2021, however, the federal approach will surely shift again. I expect that the Education Department—under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris—will more aggressively regulate for-profit institutions in ways that will likely reduce the share of students who attend them.

As California's attorney general, Harris . As a U.S. senator, she .

Biden's would restore the gainful employment rule. The incoming administration also proposes eliminating a legal loophole that allows for-profits to disproportionately .

Most significantly, Biden supports authorizing for all Americans. He also calls for per year.

I believe Biden's proposed policies would deter many future students from choosing for-profit universities. Research suggests that employers don't value for-profit degrees any more than those from or . If the Biden administration ensures that the cost of attending nonprofit colleges and universities—including those with established online degree programs—is substantively reduced, persuading students to enroll in for-profit alternatives will be very difficult.

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