More guns, pandemic stress and a police legitimacy crisis created perfect conditions for homicide spike in 2020
Homicides in the U.S. in 2020.
That was the main takeaway from that showed almost uniform increases across America in the murder rate.
The fact that big cities, small cities, suburbs and rural areas—in both blue and red states—experienced similar increases in homicides suggests that nationwide events or trends were behind the rise.
The COVID-19 pandemic would be one obvious explanation given its pervasiveness in 2020. But , homicide rates are affected by a number of factors. And what happened in 2020 was a confluence of events that created the perfect conditions for a spike in murders.
Stress and a lack of support
COVID-19 likely did have an impact. People were under increased psychological and financial pressure during the pandemic. Criminologists have long pointed to "" to explain criminal behavior. Stressors—such as unemployment, isolation and uncertainty about the future—can lead to increased frustration and anger. People experiencing these negative emotions are more prone to turn to crime when they lack access to more positive coping mechanisms. And previous research has shown how financial stressors and a lack of social support .
But the pandemic wasn't the only major event of 2020 that likely contributed to the increased homicide rates. In May of that year, by a police officer in Minneapolis.
Floyd's murder and the large-scale protests that followed sparked a . In short, this means citizens' trust in police .
The 'Ferguson effect'
When trust in the police following Floyd's murder, the general public may become less likely to call 911 to report crimes or otherwise engage with the criminal justice system. Indeed, research by Desmond Ang at Harvard University suggests that after Floyd's death, in the eight cities he and his colleagues studied.
High-profile cases of police brutality are also associated with what has become known as the "Ferguson effect," in which police officers that occasionally .
Research shows that . If this small group felt , then it might help explain the increase in homicides.
Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, cited the "Ferguson effect" in the 17% hike in homicides after Michael Brown was shot by a police officer in the Missouri city in 2014.
More guns = more gun homicides
There is also in 2020.
and found that in 10 cities, although police made fewer arrests in 2020, the number of gun seizures went up. This suggests more people were illegally carrying guns in 2020. And research has long confirmed that gun ownership is .
When there are more guns in the hands of emboldened offenders, then the likely result is more attempted and completed murders. That this all happened during the height of a pandemic means 2020 was a perfect storm of factors that proved capable of producing the largest single-year homicide spike on record.
Provided by The Conversation
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