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One group of American voters is being largely ignored in the closely watched polling leading up to the Nov. 5 elections: U.S. citizens living abroad, whether as civilians or as members of the military. We know from governmental data that the number of ballots cast by overseas Americans has been in races in the past—and may be again in 2024.

But that one potentially crucial group of American voters—U.S. citizens living abroad—does not get much attention, from pollsters or campaigns.

We are of whose research shows that overseas voters can make a difference in elections—and that there is potential for campaigns to mobilize these voters, despite a more complex process of voting than for domestic voters.

Who are overseas Americans?

Though there is not an exact count of American citizens living abroad, we do know they . Estimates from the and the placed this number between 4.4 million and 5.3 million in 2023.

But those are likely undercounts. It's almost impossible to account fully for dual citizens, naturalized U.S. citizens who have returned to the country of their birth or people who split their time between the U.S. and other countries.

Research that we and others have conducted indicates that are home to the largest numbers of , followed by the U.K., France, Israel and Germany. The three most common reasons Americans move abroad are , although there are others.

Overseas Americans tend to be highly educated: , double the percentage within the U.S. Most overseas Americans do not move from country to country but rather stay in one country, often for a decade or more. But our surveys have found they remain interested in U.S. politics—not least because , whether they work for a U.S. or foreign employer. IRS data shows that the vast majority are .

Voting from abroad

Military members and U.S. citizens living abroad have . This right was further consolidated in the , while the right for Americans living abroad to vote in local and state elections depends on state law.

have recently expressed concern that overseas voting , but there is by noncitizens abroad.

Overseas voters' absentee ballot requests and their returned ballots are in the state where they last lived in the U.S., making abuse very unlikely. But it is complex for overseas voters to vote: The paperwork is complicated, and there is comparatively little outreach from political parties and candidates.

Barriers to voting from overseas

In 2020, the Federal Voting Assistance Program, which is supposed to help overseas voters exercise their voting rights, estimated that of eligible American voters overseas cast ballots in that year's presidential election. Using program numbers to finds that no more than 20% of overseas Americans cast ballots in the 2020 election.

That's far lower than the that year.

Federal law requires local election officials in the U.S. to to overseas Americans who request them. Poor mail service in the U.S. and elsewhere can mean that voters don't always get the ballots in time, and the ballots mailed back to election officials face similar delays.

Some states allow voters to receive or return their ballots electronically, which is faster; an overseas voter casting a ballot in Massachusetts can request a ballot, receive a blank ballot and return it , while an overseas voter from Pennsylvania must return it by , following .

In 2023, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimated that did not cast ballots in the 2022 elections because of administrative hurdles, such as slow or irregular mail service and difficulties in communicating procedural changes to prospective voters abroad.

Interest in US politics

Another possible reason Americans abroad don't vote is that they have lost interest in U.S. politics. But our own research, and the work of others, finds that not to be true.

Even given the logistical challenges, U.S. citizens living in Canada, as one example, have very similar levels of interest in American politics compared with citizens back home.

During the 2020 and 2022 campaign seasons, two of us American citizens who had . In 2020, 55% indicated they were very interested in American politics, as did 44% in the midterm year of 2022. This is comparable with levels of attention to politics within the U.S. during those campaigns, as gauged by the .

So although Americans in Canada indicated interest levels as high as those in the U.S. during the past two national election cycles, the vast majority of them did not cast a vote. Administrative barriers play a role, but they're among citizens overseas.

Ignored by campaigns

Another key factor driving low turnout from abroad is a lack of communication from campaigns and parties. Research demonstrates that contact by campaigns and parties .

In the U.S., parties and campaign organizations , reinforce the stakes of an election and bolster a sense of camaraderie among citizens.

U.S. citizens living abroad are unlikely to hear from campaigns, even in nearby Canada. When asked in 2020 or 2022 whether they had been contacted by American political campaigns, . But our surveys of Americans living in Canada show less than one-third reported contact from parties or candidates.

Because overseas citizens vote in their last state of residence in the U.S. but are not physically resident there, campaigns find it harder to identify them as swing-state residents or members of favorable demographic groups.

Overall, Americans living overseas are as eligible to vote as citizens in the U.S. They are as attentive to politics as Americans living in the U.S. On the other hand, they face major administrative hurdles and are generally not contacted by American parties or campaigns.

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