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A new analysis reveals that plunging domestic tertiary enrollments in science, technology, engineering and math subjects (STEM) is putting Australia's economic future at risk.

Data from the Federal Government's Tertiary Collection of Student Information (TCSI) shows domestic STEM enrollments peaked in 2021 but have dropped steadily for the past two years by 3.1% in 2022 and a further 1.4% in 2023.

The trends are most pronounced in high-demand areas like Information Technology, Engineering, and Natural and Â鶹ÒùÔºical Sciences, where domestic enrollments are flatlining or decreasing; in the latter's case, there has been an 11% decline in domestic enrollments between 2021 to 2023.

Professor Pascale Quester, Vice-Chancellor and President of Swinburne University of Technology, says the Federal Government must act today.

"Forget a brain drain, we are at risk of a brain drought," says Professor Quester.

"As a dual-sector institution, no one is in lockstep with the Federal Government's 'Future Made in Australia' policy more than Swinburne. But a decline in domestic STEM enrolments, and a confused and haphazard policy environment, means we are fighting with our hands tied behind our back."

International students driving STEM growth and bridging the gender gap

The data reveals that, in contrast to domestic students, international student interest in STEM subjects has increased by 39% since 2021. International students are also helping address the gender gap in areas such as Information Technology, with international students comprising 66% of enrolments by women.

"There is so much STEM talent in the region but we have slammed the door in their faces with hastily-crafted policy and an Evidence Level system that is 'evidence' in name only."

"Even as we work to turn around domestic interest in STEM subjects, international students will play an essential role in the workforce we need now and into the future. We cannot let this pipeline run dry."

Calls to replace MD107 with a STEM-focused approach

Swinburne is calling on the government to replace Ministerial Direction 107 (MD107) to prioritize visa processing for STEM enrolments to ensure Australia has the skills it needs.

This would mean visa applications linked with STEM courses would be processed as a priority.

"We are proposing a simple, pragmatic approach that restores equity in the higher education sector," Professor Quester said.

"Protecting and enhancing our STEM talent pipeline is not just in the interest of universities: it is essential for a 'Future Made in Australia.'"

With 2025 intakes looming, the political uncertainty around international student visas, combined with dwindling domestic student interest in STEM, could have far-reaching consequences.

"The plans of international students, who are essential to Australia's society and economy, will be further disrupted. This undermines trust in our education system," she said.

"If the government is truly serious about delivering the skills and training required to ensure a better future for Australia, it must act now."