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Greenhouse gas emissions grow in latest data, throwing Minnesota off target for climate goals

Minnesota is off track to meet its goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for climate change, after the end of the pandemic saw a sharp rise in pollution from cars, trucks and other transportation.

State data released Thursday shows overall emissions rose 6.4% between the end of 2020 and the end of 2022.

"As we returned to the pre-pandemic routines, emissions that dropped steeply in 2020 rebounded," said Katrina Kessler, commissioner of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, at a news conference. "The trend that we're seeing in Minnesota is reflected across the nation."

Published every two years, the last report showed Minnesota was for the first time on a path to the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Gov. Tim Walz has made slashing climate pollution a top priority, and on Thursday his cabinet said the latest data does not reflect the impact of recent and significant state and federal spending, as well as regulations aimed at stemming the impact of climate change.

Emissions dropped 14% between 2005 and 2022. The MPCA also said there is still a downward trend over the long term, especially as electric utilities close coal plants and shift toward carbon-free power.

But the report illustrates the difficulty of eliminating planet-warming emissions, especially in a state with a large agricultural sector, plenty of heavy industry and a population hesitant to buy electric vehicles or stop using natural gas for home heating.

Here are some highlights from the report.

Minnesota's single-largest source of greenhouse gases, making up 29% of total emissions, remains the transportation sector: cars, trucks, planes, trains, boats and more.

Emissions jumped 13% between 2020 and 2022. Kessler said more pollution is coming from heavy-duty vehicles like delivery vans, large commercial vehicles and tractor trailers than before the pandemic, though total emissions from transportation have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels.

Walz's administration has tried to boost electric vehicles, including by approving new auto emissions regulations in 2021. The Legislature in 2023 also approved nearly $16 million for electric vehicle rebates.

Minnesotans bought a record number of electric vehicles in 2024, with the help of federal tax credits passed under former President Joe Biden, but the state is still behind the national average.

President Donald Trump has since taken steps to cut back on regulations that promote electric vehicles.

The MPCA report says consumer preference for larger cars and trucks that pollute more than small ones "challenges the pace" at which EVs and regulations can slash emissions.

Emissions from Minnesota agriculture were roughly the same in 2022 as in 2005, and are the second-largest source of climate pollution at roughly 25%.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture come primarily from fertilizer use, livestock digestion and manure storage. Kessler said some crop practices are capturing and storing emissions, and that "improved efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices" have kept emissions from rising as the state produces more food and other products.

Kessler noted the EPA in July announced a $200 million grant for Minnesota to cut farm emissions. Kessler said Minnesota is "under contract" for that grant and "will insist that those contracts are honored," even though Trump has moved to freeze or eliminate climate spending.

Minnesota's electric sector has made by far the most progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and was down 50% over 2005 levels in the latest report with 2022 data.

The state's utilities are shutting down coal plants and replacing that energy in part with wind and solar. This data was counted before 2023, when Democrats in the Legislature passed landmark new regulations aimed at a carbon-free grid by 2040.

State officials hope that as the electric sector pollutes less, it will slash emissions elsewhere too, said Grace Arnold, commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Commerce. For instance, drivers may buy electric vehicles, or heating systems that run on electricity instead of gas.

Still, emissions from the electric sector rose 4% between 2020 and 2022 as the economy picked up after the COVID slowdown.

Emissions from heavy industry and heating homes and businesses rose 7% between 2020 and 2022.

Arnold said it will be hard to slash emissions from heating in Minnesota's cold climate, though the state has passed some rebates and taken other steps to promote technology like electric heat pumps.

She noted companies and researchers are looking at ways to reduce emissions, such as producing hydrogen to use for the iron industry.