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Summer rainfall increasing over parts of the US

Summer rainfall increasing over parts of the US
(a) 10-year ARI 12-hr precipitation frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 and the locations of all 2003–2023 June–August EREs (not including tropical cyclones and isolated convection) at their respective points of maximum exceedance (translucent black dots). (b) Total precipitation exceeding the 10-year ARI threshold (mm) from all EREs plotted in (a). Credit: Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024GL110424

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters and supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation found an uptick in intense summer rainfalls inundating the central and eastern United States over the past 21 years. The study noted that these extreme rainfall events follow larger, longer-lasting thunderstorms.

"This research will help improve daily and to help us understand health and safety concerns related to one of the deadliest consequences from —flooding," said Chungu Lu, an NSF program manager.

Jason Chiappa, a who led the investigation, looked at 4-kilometer squares of rain data over areas 20–40 kilometers long from 2003 to 2023. He and his team discovered that thunderstorms that rain for hours over the same area cause extreme rainfall events.

Although the study revealed that events trended up over the years, it also showed some annual variations. "It is important for us to identify changes in the nature and frequency of these events and explore why some years have so many more extreme events than others," Chiappa said.

Extreme rainfall events are tricky to represent in global weather and because of their resolution and timing. The peak occurrence of these storms is at night when models have lower abilities to predict convective rainfall, which can occur as a sudden, short thunderstorm over a small area.

More information: Jason Chiappa et al, Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States During the Summer: 2003–2023 Trends and Variability, Geophysical Research Letters (2024).

Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters

Citation: Summer rainfall increasing over parts of the US (2025, January 2) retrieved 14 August 2025 from /news/2025-01-summer-rainfall.html
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