Study finds income-democracy link is U-shaped, not linear
Does more income equal more democracy? Not necessarily, according to an analysis of 200 years of international data.
Political scientists and economists have traditionally argued the more economic prosperity a country has, the more democratic it becomes—but Professor Ian MacKenzie from UQ's School of Economics says the relationship is not simple.
"When a country's income is very low, survival is the focus and the marginal benefits of consumption of material goods is very high," Professor MacKenzie said.
"Essentially, when you don't have much, an extra dollar is very, very valuable to you.
"Because of that, you won't invest time in political activism, you'll invest it in working to increase your income."
Professor MacKenzie, along with economists Dr. Dario Debowicz (Swansea University), Professor Alex Dickson (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow) and Associate Professor Petros Sekeris (Toulouse Business School), looked at data from every country between 1800 to 2010 to analyze their income and democratic score.
They hypothesized the relationship between the income of a country and its level of democracy is not linear but instead forms a U-shape. The was published in Public Choice.
Professor MacKenzie said when societies reach a high level of income, the curve shifts towards increased democratization.
"As income increases, there comes a turning point at which your income has increased so much you start to value improvements in political freedoms," he said.
"People feel more empowered to challenge authorities.
"A lot of people believe there is no link between income and democracy, or that there is a positive link—as in more income equals more democracy.
"What we've shown is that it's more complicated than that."
Professor MacKenzie said China was a country to watch in that it has experienced extraordinary economic growth over the past four decades while remaining an authoritarian state.
"The U-shaped theory suggests political uprisings could occur if economic growth continues," he said.
"China has many citizens who are benefitting from the country opening its markets and increasing its GDP (gross domestic product) so there's a lot of evidence to suggest they may start craving democratic principles."
More information: Dario Debowicz et al, Income and the (eventual) rise of democracy, Public Choice (2025).
Provided by University of Queensland
