One-third of Australia's coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise by 2100
New research led by Griffith University has determined that more than 43% of Queensland's current productive aquaculture sites are expected to be impacted by sea level rise.
Of the projected inundation caused by sea level rise, it is estimated 98% of prawn sites and 50% of prawn production would be impacted.
The estimated annual economic losses of these projected impacts would range between AUD$12.6 and 22.6 million for barramundi and AUD$36.9 and 127.6 million for prawns by the year 2100. These findings are in the journal Aquaculture Science and Management.
Lead researcher Marina Christofidis, a Ph.D. candidate from Griffith's Australian Rivers Institute, said Queensland was the largest terrestrial aquaculture producer in Australia, largely consisting of coastal pond-based production.
"But, under high-emission scenarios, Queensland is also projected to experience a 0.8 m sea level rise by 2100," she said.
"Aquaculture is central to livelihoods and food security, providing security to meet growing human seafood and protein demand without surpassing environmental limits.
"But the aquaculture industry is vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea level rise, and so this needs to be assessed."
Christofidis and her team conducted the assessment by using existing datasets on coastal inundation and erosion from sea level rise from the Queensland government.
They combined this with novel, satellite-derived data on current aquaculture production locations and identified aquaculture development areas, resulting in a dataset covering 647.14 km2, comprising 341 lots and 275 farms.
Among the Local Government areas (LGAs) in Queensland, considering all lots, the areas projected to be most affected by sea level rise were:
- Cassowary Coast regional (3.89 km2, 71%)
- Whitsunday Regional (3.63 km2, 39%)
- Gold Coast Regional (3.04 km2, 57%)
- Mackay Regional (2.42 km2, 100%).
The most vulnerable LGAs regarding productive prawn ponds were:
- Gold Coast city (1.12km², 92%)
- Burdekin Shire (0.59km², 49%)
- Isaac Regional (0.36km², 42%)
- Cassowary (0.30km², 20%)
- Whitsunday Regional (0.26km², 5%)
- Mackay Regional (0.073km², 100%).
Barramundi ponds were most exposed across:
- Whitsunday Regional (0.43km², 73%)
- Douglas Shire (0.23 km2, 44%)
- Cassowary Coast Regional (0.085km², 97%).
"These results are an early warning sign for Queensland's aquaculture industry. We need to integrate climate risks into planning and mitigation strategies in coastal industries like aquaculture both in Australia and globally," Christofidis said.
"For the future of aquaculture in the region, careful considerations should be taken for high-risk aquaculture developments areas located in low-elevation coastal zones; developing these areas needs to be adaptable to potential sea level rise in the future to avoid mis-investment.
"And transitioning from traditional aquaculture to more resilient systems such as integrating prawn ponds with nature-based solutions for coastal protection—such as mangroves, green seawalls, artificial reefs, fencing and netting—could help to protect coastal aquaculture and infrastructure."
More information: Marina Christofidis et al, One-third of Australia's coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise, Aquaculture Science and Management (2025).
Provided by Griffith University
