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Humanity depends on the ocean—here is what we need to prioritize for immediate ocean science research

Humankind is inextricably dependent on the ocean. Many of . Today, we are more reliant than ever on the ocean for our economic, social and physical well-being.

Maritime activities, from global trade to tourism, exceed US$3 trillion annually. The "" is the fourth largest in the world. Furthermore, our global economic vitality is largely due to the cost-effective nature of ocean transportation, which contributes to the reduced price per ton of .

From to shipping, fisheries and aquaculture, we are increasingly reliant on . Roughly that we eat .

The ocean has changed dramatically in the past century, and we expect more change to come. Collapses of fisheries, coral reefs, shark populations and other species—along with increased dead zones, red tide blooms and invasive species—have followed increased human development, .

Humanity is at a social, political, environmental and scientific .

We are a group of researchers and experts who served on a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to advise the National Science Foundation on forward-looking approaches to investing in .

We considered the question: What vital research must we pursue now, and what investments must we make to achieve ambitious research goals?

Our scientific efforts must focus on the key gaps in our predictive knowledge, and on the critical pathways and thresholds for ocean change. We should support ocean science to prepare for the future.

Readying ocean science

Given limited resources and rapid changes, we need to consider how to set priorities. Our committee offered a distinction between urgent and vital research: urgent research is time-sensitive, with immediate relevance to emerging regional and global issues, while vital research transforms our ability to grapple with rapid changes in the ocean and the Earth system.

Our ability to the ocean has .

For example, Argo——provides a global view of water properties around the planet. Argo has expanded our understanding of the global ocean and has significantly .

In addition, research on the impact of climate shifts on ocean species is more accurate, helping us to understand the impact of these shifts on , and .

The growing focus on links between the chemical, physical, geological and biological states of the ocean, and planetary climate states, provides a much-improved structure for forecasting the state of the ocean.

Healthy oceans, healthy people

A focus on human well-being and its dependence on ocean processes can provide an important connection that places ocean sciences in key conversations related to human health.

When it comes to understanding the importance of ocean and climate, we need to determine how the ocean's ability to absorb heat and carbon dioxide will change. While the ocean presently absorbs 90% of and roughly , changes in the physical and biological ocean will likely slow these rates, leading to .

Related to this climate question, how will marine ecosystems respond to changes in the Earth system? Declining ecosystem resilience will likely have strong negative impacts on food supplies and livelihoods.

Can we develop new understanding that will support model forecasts to determine the effects of warming, acidification and de-oxygenation on marine life?

Another challenge is to improve our ability to forecast extreme events driven by ocean and seafloor processes. Marine earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and storm surges are natural processes that pose serious risks to . Societal vulnerability to these extreme events can be profound.

As our built coastal infrastructure expands, and climate change shifts patterns of such extreme events, it is critical to improve our ability to observe, understand and forecast extreme events.

Investing in ocean futures

Ocean research depends on continued funding of basic studies and investment in key ocean science infrastructure. We must integrate emerging technologies, artificial intelligence and expanded use of existing ocean infrastructure such as globally ranging research vessels, global drifters that float on the ocean surface and gather information, underwater communication cables and coastal marine laboratories.

International cooperation is needed since few of these challenges are truly local. A move towards more collaborative, transdisciplinary research is necessary, alongside an expanded ocean science workforce with training and knowledge well beyond those of traditional disciplines.

Our assessment of the state of ocean science in the United States identified key infrastructure required to address these challenges.

For example, while advances in many opportunities, there will remain a need for specialized research ships that can operate in coastal and deep-sea waters and ice-covered regions to . Globally, there has been a decline in available ships to support ocean research.

Likewise, nearly 100 marine laboratories dot U.S. coastlines, providing training, access and research for thousands of students each year. The development of this infrastructure offers opportunities for international collaboration and cooperation with private sector partners. It may also be that some of the existing infrastructure, such as the , needs to be reconsidered in light of shifting priorities and developing technologies.

Collective action

We differentiate between urgent and vital ocean science research priorities.

While the urgent will continue to demand our attention—the next coral bleaching event, the latest fisheries collapse—it is our commitment to the vital research priorities identified in the report that will ultimately determine our ability to steward rather than merely react to complex changes in the oceans.

Our work offers a compass, but navigation requires collective action. Research institutions must transform their approach: restructuring tenure and promotion criteria to reward transdisciplinary investigations, supporting reskilling and upskilling of faculty, and preparing an innovative, adept workforce.

Policymakers must create frameworks that value long-term investigation. And citizens must advocate for sustained investments in ocean science that transcend political cycles. The ocean's future—and our own—depends on our willingness to pursue what is vital.