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May 12, 2025

Modeling framework predicts accelerated global vegetation growth under climate change

Significant global LAI (leaf area index) trends from 1982 to 2014. Credit: Global Change Biology (2025). DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70126
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Significant global LAI (leaf area index) trends from 1982 to 2014. Credit: Global Change Biology (2025). DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70126

A new study led by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has revealed significant increases in global vegetation growth under different climate scenarios. The findings were in Global Change Biology.

The researchers developed an innovative modeling framework called Grid-by-Grid; Multi-Algorithms; Optimal Combination (GGMAOC) to analyze future vegetation changes with greater accuracy. This approach tackles key challenges in predicting global greening patterns by evaluating multiple algorithms at each individual grid cell.

Using GGMAOC, the team analyzed projected changes in Leaf Area Index (LAI)—a key metric of vegetation density—across the globe and in four critical subregions. Their results suggest that high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere could experience greening rates up to 2.25 times faster by the year 2100 compared to the baseline period from 1982 to 2014.

Among the various algorithms tested, the Random Forest method demonstrated particularly strong performance, especially in models for the Northern Hemisphere. The study attributes the global increase in vegetation primarily to climate change, which appears to be fostering more favorable conditions for across diverse regions.

These insights are crucial for informing ecosystem management, , and climate adaptation strategies, providing a scientific basis for addressing the ongoing environmental transformations driven by .

More information: Hao Zhang et al, Global Greening Major Contributed by Climate Change With More Than Two Times Rate Against the History Period During the 21th Century, Global Change Biology (2025).

Journal information: Global Change Biology

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A new modeling framework predicts substantial increases in global vegetation growth under future climate scenarios, with high-latitude Northern Hemisphere regions potentially experiencing greening rates up to 2.25 times faster by 2100 compared to 1982–2014. Climate change is identified as the main driver, enhancing conditions for plant growth across various regions.

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