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A recent study led by Prof. Chen Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has revealed how decades of land-use change have significantly shaped ecological conditions in the Tarim River Basin—China's largest inland river system. The study was in Geography and Sustainability.

Using multi-source remote sensing, meteorological, and socioeconomic data, the researchers analyzed land-use and land-cover transitions over the past 30 years. They also projected future land patterns and ecological outcomes using the Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model.

The researchers found significant land-use changes between 1992 and 2020. Cropland expanded by approximately 18,851 km² (56.13%), while grassland and woodland increased by 10,235 km² and 1,015 km² respectively. Conversely, barren land decreased by around 20,597 km². The ecological quality index improved from 0.1196 to 0.1248, particularly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.

In addition, they built four land development scenarios—Natural Development, Cropland Conservation, Ecological Protection, and Urban Expansion—to simulate future trends. Under the Ecological Protection scenario, by 2050, grasslands, forests, and water bodies are projected to increase by 20,375 km², 2,635 km², and 586 km² respectively, leading to notable ecological enhancements.

Across all scenarios, the primary driver of ecological improvement is the conversion of barren land into grassland and woodland, which enhances ecosystem services such as water conservation, soil retention, and biodiversity preservation.

This study provides valuable insights and a scientific foundation for promoting sustainable socioeconomic development and ecological conservation in the region.