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The quantity of adaptation finance has been a controversial political issue, and a critical negotiating point for developing countries in international climate negotiations. At the United Nations climate conference (COP29) in Baku last year, developed countries agreed to provide more money for climate adaptation in emerging market and developing economies.

"But it is not only the amount of money that counts. At present, we have no evidence whether the existing finance distributed has been effective, and what we are actually trying to achieve with this finance in terms of climate risk reduction," says researcher Jasper Verschuur of Delft University of Technology.

"Climate adaptation finance should shift from the quantity of finance to its quality and risk-reducing impacts. The current adaptation finance system will unlikely have the desired impact of reducing climate risks to vulnerable people," says Verschuur in an in Science, written with fellow researchers from the University of Oxford and the London School of Economics.

Capacity building

"Despite good intentions and skilled people dedicated to adaptation, the lack of impact is in part due to the wrong incentives being in place," says Verschuur. There is a strong tendency now to focus on increasing adaptation finance commitments by adding adaptation components to existing and planned development projects.

At the same time, there is considerably less focus on programs that help build capacity, making necessary policy changes, and put countries in charge of their own adaptation plans. But without the latter, adaptation would simply not be impactful.

Measures to reduce COâ‚‚ emissions are often universally applicable. Climate adaptation measures, on the other hand, are heavily influenced by regional circumstances, such as agricultural needs, the local economy, and regional stakeholders.

For climate adaptation to be truly effective, initiatives should originate from the countries themselves. Looking at climate adaptation in the Netherlands, the Dutch Delta Works are more than just dikes—they are the product of a deeply rooted policy culture. The researchers suggest creating such a culture for emerging countries that face climate risks.

Urgent shift is necessary

Verschuur says, "We provide five recommendations to improve adaptation programs and projects throughout the design cycle with adaptation finance, and the role of science to facilitate this. These recommendations range from improving risk identification to planning, monitoring and creating an enabling environment for finance to be impactful."

Eventually, all five recommendations rely upon much strengthened capacity building efforts within governments, economic sectors, and communities. Verschuur explains, "Instead of the piecemeal capacity building efforts currently done, we urgently call for large-scale, coherent, efforts to enhance capacity. The next COP in Belém, Brazil this October could be a good starting point for this discussion."