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Past volcanic warming linked to marine extinctions, high-resolution fossil data show

The Earth is rapidly warming, and similar climate upheavals over 300 million years ago once triggered massive fluctuations in marine life.

Recently, a research team led by Prof. Shuzhong Shen of Nanjing University a major finding in Science Advances, revealing for the first time—through high-precision big data—that during the Late Paleozoic (approximately 340 to 250 million years ago), global cooling promoted rapid evolution and diversification of marine life, while abrupt warming, especially that induced by volcanic eruptions, led to mass extinctions.

The focus of the study is an ancient group of single-celled marine organisms called fusuline foraminifera. Though small in size, they were extraordinarily abundant, once dominating seafloor ecosystems and earning the nickname "carbonate rock factories." The team found that fusuline underwent two major diversification bursts and four extinction crises over a span of more than 91.8 million years.

Notably, after the large-scale volcanic eruptions in the large Emeishan Igneous Province around 260 million years ago, large fusuline nearly disappeared. Later, during the end-Permian supervolcanic event about 252 million years ago, this vast lineage came to a complete evolutionary halt.

Alarmingly, the current rate of global warming caused by human activities far exceeds the warming rates associated with both the Emeishan basalts and the end-Permian volcanic events. Today's marine ecosystems may be facing a similar test of survival as once experienced by the fusuline.

One of the highlights of this study is the construction of the world's first high-resolution (<45,000 years) diversity curve for fusuline foraminifera, made possible by the integration of supercomputing and AI algorithms. The analysis combined data from 299 stratigraphic sections and over 2,000 species, applying the quantitative stratigraphic CONOP supercomputing algorithm to achieve an unprecedentedly detailed reconstruction of this key fossil group. Cyclicity stratigraphic methods have also been carried out to disclose the changing trend of the diversity curve.

This research not only unveils the critical role of climate change in driving biological evolution but also offers vital scientific insights for understanding biodiversity changes under today's global warming. Prof. Shen emphasizes, "Mitigating climate change and protecting ecosystems is an urgent task of our time."

The study's co-first authors are Zhang Shuhan and Zhao Yingying, both Ph.D. students at Nanjing University. Professors Shi Yukun and Shuzhong Shen are corresponding authors.