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As gun sales in the United States continue to soar, researchers at Georgia State University have uncovered insights into what drives Americans to buy firearms. A new study in PNAS Nexus journal reveals the complex interaction among media coverage, social media activity and firearm purchases.

Led by Igor Belykh, a Distinguished University Professor of Applied Mathematics at Georgia State, the research team—including Kevin Slote, a Ph.D. student in Georgia State's mathematics and statistics doctoral program; Kevin Daley, a recent graduate; and co-authors from New York University (NYU) and the New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT)—analyzed daily data from 2012 to 2020. Their study explores how gun-rights organizations and regulation advocates influence short-term firearm purchases through social media activity and media coverage.

The study found that social media activity by both sides directly affects gun buying behavior, often triggering purchases within days of posts. Media coverage of violent crime also plays a role, as it spurs discussions among these organizations, further influencing public sentiment toward gun ownership.

While fear of mass shootings and new gun regulations are often cited as factors for impulsive gun purchases, the research indicates that social media lobbying by anti-regulation groups and targeted media coverage are more influential factors in driving firearm acquisitions. Personal safety concerns drive many gun buyers more than reactions to mass shootings or potential legislative changes.

The team used PCMCI+, a novel statistical technique, to capture real-time interactions among media, social media (specifically X, formerly known as Twitter) and FBI background checks. This method provided insights into how daily media coverage and social media posts shape decisions to purchase firearms in ways that previous, monthly data analyses had not revealed. Primarily, the team monitored results from X but plans to use other platforms in the future.

"We found this complex, interwoven web of media and social media variables and how it influences people's decision to buy guns," said Slote. "It's not as simple as people just reacting to news about mass shootings or gun laws."

Belykh added, "Our findings suggest that efforts to reduce gun purchases might be more effective if they focus on addressing fear of violent crime rather than mass shootings."

Looking ahead, the research team plans to use similar research methods and apply them to TikTok to explore a younger generation's views on mass shootings. "We're going to look at how a younger demographic's opinions about mass shootings affect these same variables," Slote said.

The study is part of WE-SAFE, a collaborative project involving NYU, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Georgia State University and Northeastern University aimed at engineering a safer American "firearm ecosystem."

For policymakers and public health officials, this research provides valuable insights into the complex factors driving gun sales in the United States. By understanding these dynamics, more effective strategies for gun violence prevention may be developed without infringing on Second Amendment rights.