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Creating new scientific models of plankton is "critical" to understanding the scale of global climate change, a new paper argues. The article, led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory's Professor Kevin Flynn and including the University of Exeter, argues that the models used to simulate the influence of plankton on ocean ecosystems are based on out-of-date concepts. The paper is in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution.

Plankton power the planet by feeding marine life and simulating what they do through modeling is essential to predict what the future may hold for our planet.

Outlining the significance of plankton to Earth, Professor Flynn said, "Plankton are mainly microscopic organisms that grow in the ocean (and also in inland waters) that support the base of the food chain. No plankton—no fish, no sharks, no whales, no seals, no coral, etc. However, the diversity of the plankton is critical; that biodiversity cannot be best compressed into just a few groups, yet invariably that is what happens in models."

The researchers argue that plankton models need updating to reflect contemporary knowledge about plankton physiology, diversity and their roles in ecosystem functioning.

"We're using simulation tools built on 30 to 50-year-old concepts to understand the most complex and rapidly changing ecosystems on Earth. And that's a real problem—not just for science, but for policy and for wider society. We need to be sure that models describe the ecophysiology of these organisms in a realistic manner," said Professor Flynn.

The paper warns of serious consequences—from underestimating biodiversity shifts to missing key drivers of marine productivity and carbon cycling.

Using models with over-simplified conceptual cores runs the risk of getting the "right" results for the wrong reasons, giving a false sense of confidence for using such models in projecting into the future.

The research calls for a transformation in how plankton are modeled and how modelers and empiricists work together. Among the key recommendations:

• Greater collaboration between empirical scientists and modelers, especially during model development
• Better accounting for aspects of real-world ecological complexity, known to be of critical importance, in core model design
• New tools that allow engagement with the development of simulation models by scientists that lack specialist coding skills
• Investment in "digital twin" platforms for plankton research—new-generation models that can simulate realistic biological processes and inform decision-making under global change

"Plankton are as essential to the Earth system as are forests and grasslands on land, yet the tools we use to model them don't reflect that importance," Professor Flynn said. "If we want to build trust in future ocean projections, we need to build better models—models better grounded in real biology."

Professor Daniel Mayor, from the University of Exeter added, "There are some great examples of plankton biologists and modelers working closely together. However, there are also situations where these two disciplines operate in isolation from each other, hindering the acquisition and transferal of knowledge and generally slowing down progress. Given the scale of the challenges our planet is facing, these inefficiencies need to be addressed.

"We suggest that plankton ecosystem models are most efficiently developed through close collaboration between modelers and those with first-hand experience and knowledge of ocean biology and ecology, and propose a range of ways through which this can be achieved."

This research paper emerged from a project exploring plankton digital twins, with the aim to produce user-friendly models to help scientists and decision-makers explore different marine futures. But the authors found existing models overlooked key biological concepts, thus hindering the development of this next-generation simulation approach.

The authors urge the scientific community to treat modeling as a core tool in plankton ecology and in teaching activities—just as molecular biology revolutionized the science from the 1980s onward, so too must simulation modeling become embedded in plankton research.

"The danger is that if we don't address this now, we will continue to pour investment into outdated models potentially providing misleading information," says Professor Flynn. "We need a plankton ecosystem modeling revolution—and we need it fast."