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A new international coordinated by Wageningen University & Research and conducted with IPB University (Indonesia) and Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences, sheds light on the complex sustainability profiles of three major vegetable oils: palm oil from Indonesia, soybean oil from Brazil, and rapeseed oil from Germany. The study, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, assesses their contributions to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2040.

The researchers not only assessed current sustainability performance, but also future performance under business-as-usual and ambitious scenarios. In these scenarios, the researchers evaluated six key sustainability aspects: land use efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity impacts, pollution effects, livelihood contributions, and economic performance.

Key findings

Palm oil leads in land use efficiency. Oil palm is currently the most land-efficient oil crop, producing over twice as much per hectare as soybean or rapeseed. This higher efficiency remains in all future scenarios, even when taking into account that the crops also produce co-products like protein meal or fiber products. Innovative practices, such as intercropping and livestock integration in oil palm and double cropping in soybean can further boost land use efficiency for all three crops.

Greenhouse gas emissions could converge by 2040. Currently, rapeseed oil has the lowest greenhouse gas emissions per ton, followed by soybean and palm oil. The GHG emission from palm oil is mainly due to methane emissions from waste (POME) and CO₂ emissions from peatland. However, under an ambitious future scenario, which includes strong sustainability practices, emissions from palm oil production will be significantly reduced. Becoming comparable to those of soybean and rapeseed.

Tropical oils struggle with biodiversity loss. In recent history, soybean and oil palm expansion have contributed to deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia respectively, with consequences for biodiversity. While rapeseed cultivation in Germany has not caused recent deforestation, future scenarios suggest that both oil palm and soybean could dramatically reduce their biodiversity impacts with proper safeguards.

Pollution risks are similar across crops. All three crops are associated with the use of crop protection products and thus, the potential for associated pollution risks.

Oil palm is a key contributor to livelihoods in Indonesia. Oil palm cultivation generates the highest income per hectare and supports more jobs per hectare than the other crops, due to its labor-intensive nature. For smallholder farmers in Indonesia, less land is needed to earn a minimum wage, compared to soybean in Brazil or rapeseed in Germany. Palm oil also plays a critical role in food security for low-income households, offering affordable cooking oil and helping to reduce the "fat gap" in undernourished populations.

Strong economic contributions across crops. While soybean contributes most to overall export value, mainly through whole beans and protein meal, palm oil generates the highest export revenue from oil alone.

Under the business-as-usual scenario current trends are extrapolated to 2040. This means, for example, that oil palm yields are static; methane emissions from palm oil mill effluent are slowly decreased by the introduction of methane capture for energy generation. There is still some deforestation; water tables in peat land used for palm oil production are increased, thereby reducing CO₂ emissions; intercropping is expanded; limited use is made of palm residues.

For soybean production in Brazil, yields increase at the current rate, double cropping (2 crops per year) is slowly expanded, and soybean areas and connected deforestation still increase.

For rapeseed, yields are static, based on past trends, and production inputs remain unchanged compared to current inputs.

Under the ambitious scenarios, drastic but still realistic measures are taken that include for palm oil:

• phasing out oil palm on peat land;
• no deforestation for oil palm production;
• strong yield increases;
• expansion of cattle rearing in palm plantations;
• expansion of intercropping during the juvenile (3 years) phase of oil palm;
• extensive use of residues for biobased applications (residue oils are recovered and fiber is used for energy and/or material uses).

For soybean:

• yields are increased strongly, double cropping is strongly expanded;
• fallow is reduced to zero and no deforestation for soybean production;
• efficiencies are realized in fertilizer and pesticide use.

For rapeseed:

• yields increase;
• fertilizer and pesticide use efficiencies are improved.

The findings underscore that no single crop is uniformly sustainable across all indicators. Oil palm stands out for its high land use efficiency, its contribution to the national economy, and its importance for rural livelihoods. At the same time, its environmental footprint, especially related to deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, requires strong mitigation strategies.

Improving sustainability across all oil crops is both possible and necessary to achieve SDGs and national goals. The study demonstrates that with ambitious, but realistic interventions, future oil production can become much more sustainable across the board.