麻豆淫院

Humans adapt to floods through private measures, early warning systems, emergency preparedness and other solutions. A new attribution study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that such adaptation other than structural flood defenses has reduced economic losses from flooding by 63% and fatalities by 52% since 1950.

The study analyzes seven decades of historical flood impacts across Europe and demonstrates how adaptation measures have reduced damage over time.

Flood damage is the result of the interaction between hazards, such as heavy rainfall or storm surges, exposure, i.e., how many people and assets are located in vulnerable areas, and vulnerability, i.e., how badly these areas can be affected by flooding.

"Flood protection and other adaptation measures have largely offset the increasing flood risk from expansion into flood plains and climate change across the continent since 1950," explains Dominik Paprotny, a PIK researcher and the lead author of the attribution study in Science Advances.

"Vulnerability has been significantly reduced, but progress in adaptation has been slower in the past 20 years, indicating the need for additional efforts to prevent an increase in flood losses from climate change in the future."

According to the study, economic losses in Europe due to flooding and the number of people affected have increased by around 8% since 1950 due to climate change. The research team examined 1,729 floods that occurred across Europe between 1950 and 2020, comparing them in scenarios with and without climate and socioeconomic changes since 1950.

Using historical damage data from these events, the researchers were also able to deduce changes in the level of protection provided by measures such as dikes, dams, early warning systems and changed building regulations at the European level over time.

Their results show that increased exposure has dominated the increase in damages. However, improved protective measures and reduced vulnerability have partially offset this trend.

Damages relative to GDP have fallen to one-third

The study identifies the factors behind long-term trends in flood damage in Europe, revealing clear regional differences: Flood protection levels have improved more in western and southern Europe than in eastern and northern parts of the continent. Moreover, the study shows, that vulnerability has declined across the continent鈥攚ith few exceptions, particularly for the population affected in parts of eastern Europe.

Absolute economic losses have almost doubled from 37 billion euros between 1950 and 1960 to 71 billion euros over the past decade. However, relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the study area, the economic impact has decreased significantly in percentage terms, now amounting to around one-third of that in the 1950s. This is because economic growth since the 1950s has outpaced the increase in damages.

Adaptation has its limits

"We can reduce damage through adaptation, but adaptation has its limits," says Katja Frieler, lead of the international climate impact model inter-comparison project ISIMIP at PIK and co-author of the study.

"As warming increases, we are getting closer to those limits." In the past four years, multiple particularly severe floods have occurred, such as the Ahrtal flood in Germany in 2021.

"It is important to continuously monitor progress in adaptation and the impacts of climate change, and to swiftly cut global greenhouse gas emissions to keep climate change impacts within manageable limits," Frieler concludes.