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Australia has a new : cutting emissions by below 2005 levels by 2035. Meeting even the lower end means emissions in a decade.

That will entail drastic changes across the economy—especially in transport.

Transport is Australia's and fastest-growing source of emissions. The sector is difficult to decarbonize, because it's not easy to use renewable electricity in shipping and aviation.

On current trends, transport will become Australia's largest-emitting sector by 2030. Unless this problem is tackled head-on, Australia's new climate target cannot be met.

Getting our priorities straight

The Albanese set Australia's new climate target earlier this month. It was accompanied by a and for individual sectors.

The rightly identifies several priorities: clean electricity, lowering emissions by electrification and efficiency, and expanding clean fuel use. The is focused on electrifying light vehicles, expanding electric vehicle charging, and developing low-carbon fuels for heavy trucks, planes and ships.

Modeling by the shows major change is needed to meet the 2035 target. In transport, for example, sold by 2035 must be electric.

Such shifts are technically feasible, but they demand policy settings far stronger than those now in place.

Where problems lie

To reduce transport emissions, the government is relying heavily on the use of .This is a . shows hydrogen trucks are far less efficient than battery-electric ones.

Our own found in real-world conditions, hydrogen trucks can have two to three times the emissions intensity (the amount of greenhouse gases emitted per kilometer traveled) of electric trucks. Other has also found uncertainty about hydrogen as a fuel remained an obstacle to freight decarbonization.

The government also to handle "residual" emissions—those that remain after available decarbonization methods have been deployed.

There is no practical way to directly capture emissions from vehicles in use. Instead, transport emissions would be offset by capturing and storing carbon emitted by other activities such as industrial plants or gas facilities.

But Australia's track record with carbon-capture is poor. Flagship projects such as have consistently underperformed, and several concluded the technology has to deliver at scale.

The government also plans to offset residual emissions through carbon removal methods such as tree-planting. But there are longstanding concerns about the . And carbon may only be stored in plants .

For these reasons, we must be skeptical about using offsets to balance out transport emissions. It doesn't reduce fossil fuel use in transport, and it risks delaying investment in more proven solutions.

What else should be on the table?

There are proven transport decarbonization that deserve more weight than carbon-capture or hydrogen.

To accelerate the electrification of cars and buses, the government should set clear sales targets. This creates certainty for manufacturers, consumers and infrastructure providers.

We can look overseas for guidance. The that 80% of new cars and 70% of vans be zero-emission by 2030, rising to 100% by 2035. , stating that by 2035, battery electric vehicles should become the mainstream of new car sales.

should also be tightened over time, and extended to .

Urban planning needs to by promoting public transport, walking and cycling. in public and is also needed.

Another policy that deserves serious attention is . This involves charging drivers based on how much, when and where they drive.

In places such as , this has led to and passengers shifting to buses, walking or cycling. Modeling by my colleagues and I shows road-use charges in Melbourne could reduce car travel and .

Well-designed could help reduce demand for road freight on busy routes, discourage unnecessary trips and generate revenue to support .

can enable more efficient freight. And heavy freight can be , supported by investment in modern rail corridors.

And instead of pursuing hydrogen to decarbonize freight transport, the government should direct resources to accelerating electrification—including offering .

The window is closing

Australia needs to ensure transport delivers its share of emission reductions and keeps the country on track for net zero by 2050.

Currently, Australia risks leaning too heavily on unproven transport solutions that may not deliver real cuts. We risk locking in high emissions and missing the 2035 and 2050 goals.

Real progress means focusing on what we know works: electrification, renewables, redesigning our cities and changing how we travel. Every year of delay makes the task harder. With just a decade to halve emissions, the window for action is closing fast.