Perceptions of vulnerability to extreme weather. Respondents were asked, "How much do you think extreme weather (like extreme heat, drought, severe storms, floods, hurricanes, or wildfires) will harm people in your community in the next 5 y?" Credit: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2415324122
Small island states are among the most vulnerable to climate change, but there's surprisingly scant research revealing what such residents think about these threats, says Parrish Bergquist, assistant professor of political science in the School of Arts & Sciences.
"This segment of the population is pivotal to global conversations around climate change. Their leaders are front and center when these discussions happen, but we know so little about what members of the public in these places think and feel."
A published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences closely examines exactly that issue. Through a first-of-its-kind survey completed by Bergquist and national colleagues, the researchers gained insight into how residents across 55 small-island states and territories are approaching climate change.
Surveyed areas span the globe and include countries like Jamaica and the Philippines, along with territories like Puerto Rico. Some are major tourist destinations; others have only about 10,000 inhabitants. To reach even the most far-flung spots—and to keep costs down—the team turned to Facebook, an increasingly popular survey outlet among researchers.
"Facebook and social media, in general, give you access to real people out in the world," Bergquist says. "You can use census data to designate quota cells by age, gender, and geography, which helps generate a more diverse and representative sample." The team ended up reaching around 40,000 people, who responded to questions such as how much sea water had contaminated their drinking sources, or whether climate change had made storms in their areas worse.
Bergquist says some findings were fairly consistent across the board. "One big takeaway was how high the levels of concern are in these places," she says. "People understand that this is happening, and they're worried about it. They perceive themselves to be quite vulnerable to climate change—there's really no wavering or hesitation there."
Within that shared understanding lies a deeper sense of connection and collective identity. For example, survey respondents who were worried about sea-level rise weren't always based in areas immediately threatened by land loss. "They aren't just thinking, 'Oh, my home is at risk,'" Bergquist says. "It's more like, 'Oh my whole island is at risk.'"
That finding surprised Bergquist and her colleagues—and it wasn't the only one. Another dealt with sentiments toward global heavyweights.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency and many other institutions, the United States and China are among the highest emitters of carbon emissions worldwide, either historically (the U.S.) or currently (China).
Though people living in climate-vulnerable areas do see those superpowers as more responsible for the problem than their own countries, "it's much more muted than we expected," Bergquist says. Survey respondents still feel their nations and territories have some responsibility for solving the problem, she explains, indicating a larger belief that the burden lies with everyone.
The survey is just the beginning of a much bigger collaboration: Bergquist says there are multiple "spin-off papers" in the works addressing issues like climate-driven migration and views on international aid funding. "Ultimately," she says, "we're really interested in how people think about their own vulnerability and what they want done to address it."
More information: Matto Mildenberger et al, How publics in small-island states view climate change and international responses to it, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025).
Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Provided by University of Pennsylvania