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Lumber, especially softwood lumber like pine and spruce, is critical to U.S. home construction. Its availability and price directly affect . The U.S. imports about , .

President Donald Trump says that the U.S. has the capacity to meet and directed federal officials to update policies and regulatory guidelines to and curb the .

, he announced new tariffs on imported timber and wood products, including an additional 10% tariff on Canadian lumber. Those were added to in August. It was the latest phase in a long-standing dispute over the supply of lumber to builders in the U.S., which dates back to the 1980s, when U.S. producers began arguing that Canadian companies were benefiting from unfair subsidies from their government. Starting on Oct. 15, Canadian softwood lumber imports could face .

As researchers studying the and , we recognize that the U.S. has ample forest resources. But replacing imports with domestic lumber isn't as simple as it sounds.

There are differences in tree species and quality, and U.S. lumber often comes at a higher cost, even with tariffs on imports. Challenges like limited labor and manufacturing capacity require long-term investments, which temporary tariffs and uncertain trade policies often fail to encourage. In addition, the amount of lumber imported tends to mirror the boom-and-bust cycles of housing construction, a dynamic that tariffs alone are unlikely to change.

Trump's moves

To boost U.S. logging, in March, Trump issued an executive order telling the departments of Interior and Agriculture to ease what he called "" regulations on timber harvesting. The executive order and a do not spell out specifics, but officials say more details are in the works that will simplify the timber harvesting process, with the goal of boosting .

That same month, Trump ordered the Commerce Department to assess how imports of timber, lumber and related wood products affect .

While that assessment was underway, in July, the Commerce Department published findings from a . That inquiry alleged that Canadian companies were selling lumber to the U.S. at , potentially leaving U.S. producers with lower sales or depressed prices. That finding was cited as the basis for the 35% August tariff announcement.

In its national security investigation initiated in March, the Commerce Department concluded that an overreliance on imported wood products means " for wood products that are crucial to the national defense and critical infrastructure." The September tariff announcement is based on those findings.

Canadian lumber in the US market

In 1991, the (27 million cubic meters) of Canadian lumber. Those imports rose to a high of 22 billion board feet (52 million cubic meters) by 2005.

But as housing construction declined—especially during the from 2007 to 2009—imports dropped sharply, to less than 8.4 billion board feet (20 million cubic meters) in 2009. The current volume has not recovered to prerecession levels, rising only to 12 billion board feet (28 million cubic meters) in 2024.

The value of Canadian lumber has also fluctuated. Historically, prices for Canadian lumber have ($140 per cubic meter). During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, to almost $800 per thousand board feet ($340 per cubic meter). But since peaking in 2021 and 2022, prices have dropped significantly to $436 per thousand board feet ($185 per cubic meter) by 2024.

In total, in 2024, the U.S. imported from Canada. Softwood lumber accounted for almost half of that.

Lumber and housing

As personal income rises and populations grow, people seek to build new homes. As new home construction—called "" in economic data—increases, so does demand for softwood lumber to build those homes. And when housing starts slow, so does lumber demand.

For instance, housing starts fell during the Great Recession. They declined from a January 2006 peak of 2.3 million to less than 500,000 in January 2009—. In that same period, imports of Canadian lumber . Domestic softwood lumber production .

Both domestic and imported lumber prices can directly influence the overall cost of building homes, which in turn . That said, lumber used for framing usually accounts for . The effects of tariffs on new home construction may be significantly less than other factors, such as .

A matter of choice

The U.S. has a lot of potential lumber available. Especially in the South, the over many years.

However, the types of wood available in the U.S. are not always the same as what's available from Canadian imports. For framing, contractors may prefer spruce, northern pines and fir, naturally abundant in Canada, because they are than southern yellow pine, which is abundant in the southern U.S. Southern yellow pine is more commonly used to make utility poles and preservative-treated lumber for outdoor construction projects, such as decks.

Lumber from Idaho, eastern Oregon and eastern Washington, however, does share characteristics with Canadian species and could take the place of at least some Canadian lumber.

As the Trump administration seeks to boost domestic lumber, buyers will be looking not only at where their lumber came from, but what it costs and what type of lumber is best for what they need to accomplish.

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