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The June 2023 heat wave in northern European seas was "unprecedented but not unexpected," new research shows.

During the heat wave, temperatures in the shallow seas around the UK (including the North Sea and Celtic Sea) reached 2.9掳C above the June average for 16 days.

While unprecedented since observations began, the study warns that rapid climate change means there is now about a 10% chance of a marine heat wave of this scale occurring each year.

The June 2023 marine heat wave . Although its full impact on marine ecosystems remains to be assessed, such heat waves can stress marine species and increase concentrations of bacteria that can harm humans.

The study was carried out by the University of Exeter, the Met Office and Cefas. The paper, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, is titled "Recent European marine heat waves are unprecedented but not unexpected."

"Our findings show that marine heat waves are a problem now鈥攏ot just a risk from future climate change," said Dr. Jamie Atkins, who led the study during his Ph.D. at Exeter, and is now at Utrecht University.

"The unprecedented nature of the June 2023 event put European marine heat waves firmly in the public consciousness.

"However, our study shows that鈥攊n today's climate鈥攕uch events should not be unexpected."

Co-author Professor Adam Scaife, of the University of Exeter and Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said, "This is another example of how steady climate warming is leading to an exponential increase in the occurrence of extreme events."

The study used a large number of climate model simulations to assess the likelihood of heat waves at the June 2023 level or above.

It focused on two locations. In the Celtic Sea鈥攐ff the south coast of Ireland鈥攖he annual chance of such a heat wave rose from 3.8% in 1993 to 13.8% now. And, in the central North Sea, the chance rose from 0.7% in 1993 to 9.8% now.

showed that the June 2023 marine heat wave also contributed to record-breaking temperatures and increased rainfall over the British Isles.

Explaining this, Dr. Atkins said, "Warmer seas provide a source of heat off the coast, contributing to higher temperatures on land.

"Additionally, warmer air carries more moisture鈥攁nd when that cools it leads to increased rainfall."

The team say more research is now needed to investigate the impacts of marine heat waves in European North-West shelf seas.