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Hurricane Ian strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday as it headed for Florida and was dangerous storm surge to the coast and flooding rainfall to . Several areas, including around Tampa Bay, were under .

After a to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, Ian formed in ideal conditions, with minimal vertical wind shear, which can tear apart a storm, and providing fuel.

Forecasters expect Ian to remain a major hurricane—meaning Category 3 or higher on the , with winds over 110 mph—as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico. But the scale doesn't take water risk into account, and flooding and storm surge are both major risks from Ian.

As a , I study tropical storms and hurricanes. Here are three reasons Florida is facing a high risk of water hazards this week.

The rainy side of the storm

Tropical systems are not perfectly symmetrical systems—one side is typically larger. With Ian tracking up the west coast of Florida, the peninsula is expected to be on the ". The part of the storm east of the center of circulation generally has more cloud cover and more rain.

While Ian travels up the Florida coast, these outer bands will stretch over much of the peninsula and produce heavy rain for many locations, beginning for South Florida and late Wednesday for northern parts of the state.

Some 10 inches or more of rain in the region where the storm makes landfall and travels across the state, possibly as high as 15 inches.

Regardless of the landfall location, most of the Florida Peninsula will see effects from Hurricane Ian.

Storm surge risk

As Hurricane Ian continues to track north, it will be pushing the waters of the Gulf of Mexico northward with it. This is storm surge, and it raises the water level, with waves on top adding to its destructive power.

The Gulf acts like a huge bathtub, and when strong storms enter into this region, they help lift up the water due to . Barometric pressure has a direct influence on sea levels. When air pressure rises, sea levels lower. However, lower barometric pressure lifts the sea.

Additionally, the storm's strong winds will push the water in the same direction the storm is heading. Since land surrounds the Gulf of Mexico, there is nowhere for this water to go but inland.

Locations along a large part of the western Gulf Coast could see storm surge heights between , depending on just how close Ian tracks to the coastline. The Tampa area forecast as of Tuesday, was for up to 10 feet of storm surge that could be pushed into Tampa Bay. Up to 3 feet of storm surge was expected for the Florida Keys and South Florida, but these amounts could also be higher, especially as Ian strengthens.

Due to Ian's northward track, portions of the Big Bend and the Panhandle can expect to , especially as the storm nears land. The Tampa Bay area in particular should be monitoring Ian closely, especially if the center of circulation makes a direct impact or remains just offshore.

were already in effect Monday for parts of Hillsborough, Pinellas and Manatee counties, and Hernando County had a voluntary evacuation order. Residents were encouraged to and before the storm arrives.

Size matters

Another factor to watch is Ian's size. Size plays a key role in a hurricane's impact.

A large hurricane, , will have more cloud cover and therefore more rain. Storm surge will reach a larger area with larger storms. If the storm is large enough, it could even generate storm surge on the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula, like Irma did along portions of northeast Florida.

A smaller storm, like , is more of a wind storm and the impacts are in a smaller area. But as Florida saw with Andrew, wind damage can be catastrophic in these smaller systems.

It's too early to tell how large Ian will get, but the storm is over the Gulf of Mexico. Residents across Florida need to prepare for the risk of heavy rain, flash flooding, storm surge, isolated tornadoes and strong winds.

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