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Donald Trump will return to the White House having set out his foreign policy approach for the next four years.

US voters have chosen a leader who adheres to an principle, where US interests come first, and is expected to be more than the current president, Joe Biden.

While a second Trump presidency might be welcomed by some foreign leaders including Hungarian prime minister and India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, the same cannot be said about Chinese president Xi Jinping. For China, which has experienced relations with the US since Trump's first presidency, having a Trump administration back in the White House is not likely to be good news for Beijing.

China's economic challenges

Trump waged an unprecedented against the world's second-largest economy in July 2018 and imposed tariffs that went as high as on Chinese imports coming into the US.

But during his 2024 campaign speeches, Trump suggested that US tariffs on Chinese goods could go as high as or .

China's economy is in a downturn, with , and . Further tariffs might cripple China's economic recovery strategy, which depends heavily on .

Unfortunately for Beijing, higher tariffs might not be the only thing that Beijing has to worry about under a second Trump presidency. A Trump-led US is likely to the amount of technology flowing from the US or Europe into China, which would dent China's ambitions of becoming the in 2030.

The new US administration may also pursue an economic strategy to "derisk" itself from Chinese exposure. This would aim to diminish US dependency on China by moving its supply chain , and may restrict US investment in China.

While Trump's previous high tariffs (continued by Joe Biden) have undoubtedly soured ties between Washington and Beijing, another contributing factor that Sino-US relations is the Russia-Ukraine war. The west has accused Beijing of Moscow during the Russia-Ukraine war and has to take action against China for its aid to Russia.

Fortunately for Russia, a second Trump presidency may turn the tide in Moscow's favor. A Trump-negotiated peace deal between Russian and Ukraine might include the of Ukranian land currently occupied by Russia. Trump might even lift or reduce sanctions against Russia as the new president-elect has .

Beijing hopes for a strong ally in Russia to help counter a US-led world order and to avoid being the focus of the west if Russia somehow bungles in its conquest in Ukraine. But as the and top proponent of an "America first" agenda, what does Trump stand to gain from helping Russia?

First, Russia has become highly dependent on China, and helping Russia resolve its diplomatic and economic issues might undermine Beijing's influence in Russia. Second, as a Russian-backed Iran in the Middle East, a new Trump administration might broker a Russian-Ukrainian peace accord that sees Russia withhold from Iran and the latter's regional allies, such as .

As Iran's influence in the region diminishes, Washington could free up more resources tied up in the Middle East and refocus its energies elsewhere, such as China, if Washington so wishes. And that may undermine China's economic recovery further.

And what next for Taiwan?

Unlike , Trump has been on whether he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, there are fears that Trump might cut a deal with China and use Taiwan as a chip or perhaps the island altogether.

Trump seemed aggrieved by the fact that Taiwan has the semiconductor industry away from the US and believes that the island for its defense. But his grievance against Taiwan isn't the biggest issue.

Trump has indicated he could increase on Chinese goods up to 200% if Beijing were to invade Taiwan. Given China's economic problems and President Xi's need to prove his worth as a leader whose prestige and power is to founder of the People's Republic of China, Mao Zedong, Xi might find this a worthy trade.

How might China respond?

As China braces for uncertainties brought by a second Trump presidency, Beijing is likely to pursue alliances outside the western world. It might become with the ) and the ) as China reduces its dependency on the west for exports and investment.

China may also engage with Iran if Russian support for the Middle Eastern regime reduces. After all, more US resources in the Middle East could mean less resource to deal with the .

One factor that might make Trump concerned about Taiwan coming under Beijing's control, even if he does want the US to produce more, is that the island manufactures . This is crucial for the use of and .

It remains unclear what role Elon Musk will play in the second Trump presidency. Trump had indicated that Musk would head a if he wins a second term. However, since his Tesla electric cars are highly on the Chinese market, and Tesla has a what role Musk would play in bridging the Washington-Beijing divide remains to be seen.

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