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Wildfires in California are intensifying due to warmer temperatures and dry vegetation—putting more residents at risk of experiencing costly damage or losing their homes. Marginalized populations (lower income, elderly, and the disabled) often suffer the most and, according to a new study, may receive less economic and emergency assistance compared to wealthy residents.

A detailed analysis of more than 500 California wildfire incidents from 2015 to 2022 by University at Buffalo scientists shows that disaster recovery resources in California favor people living in wealthy communities over disadvantaged residents who lack the resources to plan for and recover from a wildfire.

"We discovered that racial and economic inequity plays a pivotal role in resource allocation for wildfire recovery and mitigation," says lead author Poulomee Roy, Ph.D. candidate in Industrial and Systems Engineering. She will present the results in December at the annual in Austin, Texas.

To examine the underlying relationships between resource allocation and socio-demographic factors, the researchers conducted an in-depth analysis of data (at the county level) related to 504 California wildfire incidents leveraging cutting-edge AI-driven approaches. Factors included in the analysis were:

• wildfire impact (the spread, burnt area, structural damage, fatalities, etc.),

• sociodemographic factors (population, race, ethnicity, poverty, educational level, populations of elderly and disabled, sex ratio, crowded households, etc.), and

• resource allocation data (estimated cost incurred for the wildfire mitigation, personnel deployed in the rescue operation, and whether any equipment like aircraft, gulf strikes, water tenders, dozers, etc., are deployed or not).

"Our study highlighted a pronounced trend in which counties with higher percentages of lower-income and black populations receive less personnel and funding, compared to those counties with higher proportions of high-income and white people," says principal investigator Dr. Sayanti Mukherjee, Assistant Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering.

When measuring "personnel for rescue operations," the analysis showed that racial distribution within a county plays an instrumental role in resource allocation. For example, counties with a higher number of Hispanic or Latino residents had fewer wildfire rescue personnel available to them despite facing a higher risk of wildfire.

The results also showed a declining trend of recovery efforts and resources allocated in counties with higher Black or African American populations.

By contrast, counties with a greater concentration of wealthier, single-parent households (such as Los Angeles County), received adequate personnel to mitigate a wildfire. (Wildfire mitigation is defined by FEMA as "any actions undertaken to decrease the risk of damage or loss of life from wildfires.")

Elderly and disabled populations likely need more assistance during an evacuation and rescue operation, yet the study revealed that the number of rescue personnel lowered as the population of elderly and disabled in a county increased. The same trend was seen when the number of "crowded households" rose—despite the likelihood of more injuries and fatalities in crowded households during a fire.

The results were similar when resources were measured as "cost for recovery" from a wildfire. The economically disadvantaged populations did not receive adequate resources to recover from a wildfire, compared to wealthier neighborhoods with a higher proportion of single-family households.

"Our findings underscore the significant role of ethnicity, economic status, and proportion of the elderly population in determining wildfire resource allocation for these counties," says Mukherjee. "The results of this study can equip policymakers to adopt an informed decision about the distribution and allocation of resources."

The authors argue that their findings demand action from policymakers to ensure equitable recovery efforts and support for marginalized communities.