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Five years have passed since 22 March 2020, when the German government at the time imposed the first lockdown in an effort to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. What began as a two-week measure developed into a prolonged crisis that led to restrictions on close interpersonal contact, curfews, and closed schools and daycare centers. In the three pandemic years that followed, attitudes in Germany towards political institutions changed considerably.

A recent conducted by the University of Oldenburg in collaboration with the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) published in Political Research Exchange shows that trust in political institutions and media surged during the first year of the crisis, but declined considerably in the later phases of the pandemic—with long-term consequences. Trust in the police and print media also decreased and did not return to pre-pandemic levels until spring 2023.

The study, which is based on longitudinal data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), shows that in the first year of the pandemic Germany experienced a "rally-around-the-flag effect": on a scale of 1 to 4 (1 = no trust; 4 = high level of trust), the mean political trust rose from 2.37 to 2.55 at the beginning of the crisis, before dropping again in the second year of the pandemic. Core state institutions such as the federal government and the Bundestag benefited most from the "trust bonus" at the start of the pandemic.

"Times of crisis often lead to a short-term increase in political trust. However, the longer a crisis lasts and the bigger the social and economic burdens become, the more likely it is that this effect will be reversed. The decrease in trust in the federal government and the Bundestag in the second year of the pandemic clearly demonstrates this," explains project leader Gundula Zoch, Professor of Sociology of Social Inequalities at the University of Oldenburg.

Loss of trust in the police

The police, who played a central role in implementing infection control measures during the pandemic, lost a considerable amount of trust over the course of the crisis. Whereas before the pandemic they were considered one of Germany's most trustworthy institutions, their trust rating dropped sharply in the second year of the pandemic and did not return to pre-crisis levels during the period under research.

One possible explanation is that certain sections of the population took an increasingly critical view of effective police enforcement of measures such as contact restrictions, assembly bans and curfews.

Media also affected by crisis of trust

But not only state institutions were affected. The study also points to a significant loss of trust in various types of media: trust in social media in particular—which were already the least trusted before the pandemic—increased first but fell sharply, similar to a decline in trust in television and newspapers.

Although the mean level of trust in the media increased again in 2023, there were major differences between the different media types: social media, for example, recorded a strong increase and even enjoyed greater trust by the end of the crisis than at the beginning. By contrast, trust in more established print media did not return to pre-crisis levels.

"Our analysis shows that there were major fluctuations in political trust during the pandemic. A particularly critical aspect is that while trust in television and social media recovered, trust in the established print media remained permanently weakened," says Dr. Steffen Wamsler, member of the project team at the Leibniz Institute.

The long-term dangers of lost trust

"The study makes clear that political trust is particularly fragile in times of crisis—and that it takes time for lost trust to be restored after a crisis," says Professor Zoch, summarizing the results. Long-term, stable trust in political institutions, as well as in the media, is essential for a functioning democracy. If this trust erodes, the functioning of the government may also be severely impaired, for instance if the legitimacy of its decisions is called into question.

A lack of political trust is also a key trigger for the spread of conspiracy myths, which can be damaging to both social coexistence and the political system.

The study and its data

The study is based on data from 7,008 respondents from the Adult cohort of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) who were interviewed five times between 2017 and 2023 in combination with statistical data from 353 districts in Germany.

The analysis takes account of both individual and regional factors such as incidence rates, infection prevention measures, changes in work and family life and pandemic-related stress factors. The results were calculated using longitudinal regression models in order to track individual changes in political trust and the factors that influenced this over the course of the crisis.

The study was conducted as part of the project "Political attitudes and political participation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic" (PEPP-COV). It analyzes changes in political attitudes and the associated social and political participation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.