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Secret police are a quintessential feature of authoritarian regimes. From Azerbaijan's State Security Service to Zimbabwe's Central Intelligence Organization, these agencies typically target political opponents and dissidents through covert surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence.

In contrast to the regular police and armed forces, secret police primarily use to thwart threats to the government.

In Nazi Germany, for example, Gestapo , producing an atmosphere of distrust among those against Adolf Hitler. In Uganda, Idi Amin's State Research Bureau employed and intercepted mail at the post office to root out supposed saboteurs.

In Syria, Bashar al-Assad relied on the General Intelligence Directorate to oversee a . And in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro has used the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin) to , often running operations out of diplomatic missions.

Since US President Donald Trump took power in January, has become a far more visible and fearsome force on American streets.

Though ICE is ostensibly still bound by constitutional limits, the way it has been operating bears the hallmarks of a secret police force in the making.

As an expert on authoritarian regimes, I've studied historical and contemporary secret police forces extensively across Africa, Asia and Europe. They typically meet :

• they're a police force targeting political opponents and dissidents
• they're not controlled by other security agencies and answer directly to the dictator
• the identity of their members and their operations are secret
• they specialize in political intelligence and surveillance operations
• they carry out arbitrary searches, arrests, interrogations, indefinite detentions, disappearances and torture.

How close is ICE to becoming a secret police force? Let's consider each of these criteria.

Targeting dissidents

ICE has used the pretext of combating antisemitism to . A branch of the agency previously used to target drug smugglers and human traffickers has reportedly been directed to scan social media for posts sympathetic to Hamas.

On March 8, ICE arrested the prominent pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, a legal resident. It was a similar story for Rumeysa Ozturk, a university student on March 25 by ICE agents.

Trump has cited the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 as the legal pretext for ICE's actions in these cases and . The law allows the US government to deport anyone whose presence has "adverse foreign policy consequences" for the country.

Because Khalil and others are being targeted for their activism, legal scholars say the government appears to be "" against constitutionally protected free speech it disagrees with.

Directly controlled by a dictator

While ICE does not report directly to Trump, the agency is controlled by people who have shown intense loyalty to him.

ICE is part of the Department of Homeland Security, which is overseen by stalwart Trump ally Kristi Noem. She is supported by Tom Homan, a former ICE director who Trump appointed as his "border czar" in November 2024.

Despite a court order barring the deportations of alleged Venezuelan gang members to a prison in El Salvador, Homan has : "We are not stopping. I don't care what the judges think."

The pertinent question now is whether Noem or Homan would refuse to follow a dictate from Trump in the face of a direct court order.

Opaque operations

ICE agents are increasingly operating in secret. The individuals who took Ozturk off the street in a widely shared video claimed to be police officers, even though they were .

Similarly, ICE agents in plain clothes detained two men during a raid on a courthouse in Charlottesville, Virginia, on April 22. When two bystanders asked to see a warrant, not to "impede" the agents' lawful duties. ICE later said the two women would be .

Also last week, ICE agents attempted to arrest a man at a Wisconsin courthouse without a warrant. After a judge intervened, she was by the FBI and charged with two felonies.

This shroud of opacity has been accompanied by an aimed at helping people seek answers to ICE's actions.

Surveillance capabilities

ICE is , giving it both political intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities.

Its Homeland Security Investigations arm includes an intelligence division, while its Enforcement and Removal Operations arm uses third-party companies such as , , and to conduct mass surveillance.

Most worryingly, ICE is greater intelligence and surveillance capabilities by soliciting pitches from private companies to monitor threats across the internet.

According to a procurement document, contractors would be directed to focus on the backgrounds of social media users and use facial recognition capabilities to gather information on people. Criticisms of ICE itself would be monitored, too.

Unlawful policing

There has been a stream of reports exposing how ICE is conducting arbitrary searches, arrests, interrogations, and indefinite detentions.

Some of the most egregious reported examples include:

• entering primary schools in search of undocumented students
• carrying out "," that is detaining people not previously identified as targets during operations
• detaining for unknown reasons
• and disappearing .

Since Trump's inauguration, at least three people in ICE detention facilities, the latest in a in recent years.

Prolonged solitary confinement is . UN experts say this .

Potentially expanded scope

Overall, the evidence shows ICE meets most of the criteria for being a secret police force. It has yet to target political opponents, which I define narrowly as members of the Democratic Party. And it is not directly controlled by Trump, although the current structure provides him with plausible deniability.

While the agency is far from resembling history's most feared secret police forces, there have so far been few constraints on how it operates.

The worst may be yet to come. A budget bill making its way through Congress would provide ICE with up to over the next decade. (Its current annual budget is US$9 billion, or A$14 billion.) This would supercharge its use of surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence.

When combined with a potential shift towards for dissent and disobedience, ICE is fast becoming a key piece in the repressive apparatus of American authoritarianism.