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A team of meteorologists, Earth scientists and oceanographers at Sorbonne Université, working with one colleague from Université Paris-Saclay and another from Université Brest, all in France, has developed a simulation that they believe shows how declining coral reef calcification could slow global warming.

In their study, in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group used data from prior predictions regarding the loss of coral reefs due to ocean acidification to build a model that simulates how much less carbon dioxide would be released from the ocean into the atmosphere, and its possible impact on global warming.

Prior research has shown that corals and the reefs they build in the world's oceans are at risk due to increased ocean acidification caused by an increase in carbon dioxide. Such acidification has been found to cause bleaching and harms the ability of corals to build carbonate skeletons which form reefs.

Corals behave opposite that of land-based plants—instead of absorbing carbon dioxide as they grow, corals release it as their calcium-carbonate-based skeletons grow. That carbon dioxide then makes its way to the surface, where it is released into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. Because of that, the loss of coral calcification is expected to allow the oceans to absorb more carbon dioxide.

In this new effort, the research team used existing data to create a simulation showing how much the planet would benefit (regarding carbon levels only) if different percentages of the world's corals were to die due to heightened levels of carbon dioxide in the water.

The research team found that the world's oceans would be able to absorb between 1 and 5% more carbon by 2100 based on current carbon emission estimates and the rate of coral die-off. They also found the percentage could increase by up to 13% by 2300.

The researchers note that their simulation did not take into consideration other factors that could change the rate of decline of corals. They also note that the loss of corals, while potentially helpful in slowing global warming, would be catastrophic to the animals that live among the reefs they build, possibly altering the ocean in ways that have not yet been discovered.

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