New simulations show how much colder European winters would get if AMOC collapses
Bob Yirka
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Lisa Lock
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Robert Egan
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A pair of meteorologists in the Netherlands has used new simulations to show just how cold many of Europe's cities could get if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were to collapse due to global warming. In their study, in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, René van Westen and Michiel Baatsen developed a climate model based on a range of ocean temperature changes that could arise due to global warming.
For many years, Earth scientists have been predicting that global warming is likely to impact the AMOC in ways that could impact Europe's climate. Theories suggest that as warmer water reaches the North Atlantic, more ice could melt, leading to cooling of the water that returns south.
Some theories also suggest that if enough cooling occurs, the AMOC could collapse altogether, with the ocean becoming stagnant. That would lead to northern ocean temperatures growing even colder. In this new effort, the researchers developed a climate model based on such a collapse using temperature data.
Under a scenario where Earth warms 2°C over preindustrial levels, the researchers found the AMOC coming to a near standstill, along with dramatically dropping temperatures in Europe during the winter months.
They found, for example, that Edinburgh could see temperatures as low as -30°C. And London, they found, could undergo temperatures as low as -19°C and over two weeks' worth of days with below-zero temperatures. In the simulation, Oslo was projected to experience below-zero days for nearly half the year. The researchers also found that Scandinavia would grow colder, with some parts enduring temperatures as low as -50°C.
The researchers also note that temperatures in the summer would not change much because temperatures over the continent during the warm months are not impacted by ocean temperatures. That means that the contrast between summer and winter would be extreme. Additionally, other models have suggested Europe would have less precipitation if the AMOC were to collapse, along with a speed-up in sea-level rise.
More information: René M. van Westen et al, European Temperature Extremes Under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model, Geophysical Research Letters (2025).
Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters
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