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Trees are essential to life on Earth. They support ecosystems, store carbon, provide clean water, improve our health, and offer countless benefits to people and nature. In a new study, researchers modeled the future climate exposure (areas where trees will experience conditions they have never faced before) of more than 32,000 tree species worldwide. in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, their findings reveal that many trees will face conditions far outside what they currently experience—especially under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

"We found that nearly 70% of tree species will see significant climate shifts in at least part of their range by the end of this century," says the study's lead author Dr. Coline Boonman (Wageningen University). "For some species, over half of their habitat could be affected under an extreme 4°C warming scenario."

Where will it hit the hardest?

The study also mapped "exposure hotspots," regions where local tree diversity—the number of tree species in a given area—will be most exposed. Hotspots include Eurasia, northwestern North America, northern Chile, and the Amazon Delta. In these places, climate conditions are expected to change so drastically that many species may no longer survive without help.

"This research provides a global map of where trees are most vulnerable to climate change," explains Dr. Boonman. "It's a crucial tool for conservation planning and ecosystem resilience."

Trees, with long lifespans and limited ability to migrate, are especially vulnerable to rapid shifts in temperature and precipitation. Importantly, the study focused only on climate exposure, not other threats like deforestation or invasive species. That means the real risks to trees could be even greater.

Hope, despite the risks

The good news? The researchers also identified climate refugia—areas where conditions are expected to stay relatively stable and could serve as safe havens for trees if the area is protected. These places are vital for long-term conservation efforts.

The findings support urgent conservation actions such as monitoring high-risk species, protecting climate refugia from human activity and considering proactive strategies like assisted migration.

Dr. Josep Serra-Diaz (Botanical Institute of Barcelona, CSIC-CMCNB), co-author of the study, highlighted the urgent need to safeguard the world's trees—before it's too late. "This provides a comprehensive global study that shows where to focus our attention to conserve and where mitigation and adaptation need to be focused, looking at small scale opportunities to keep our treed ecosystems diverse."