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As US climate data-gathering is gutted, Australian forecasting is now at real risk

This year, Australia has experienced record-breaking floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves on land and in the ocean, drought, coral bleaching, coastal erosion and devastating algal blooms. Over the past five years, insured losses from extreme events have risen to ²¹²Ô²Ô³Ü²¹±ô±ô²â— the 30-year average.

But even as damage from climate change intensifies, political change overseas is threatening Australia's ability to track what's happening now, and predict what will happen next.

The United States has historically been a world leader in Earth observation systems and the gathered data. Sharing of data, expertise and resources between scientists in the US and Australia makes possible the high-quality weather, climate and ocean we rely on.

But this is no longer guaranteed. Under the Trump administration, key US scientific institutions and monitoring programs are facing deep cuts. These cuts aren't just cosmetic—they will end essential data gathering. Australia has long relied on these data sources. When they dry up, it will make it much harder for scientists to look ahead.

Australian leaders should look for ways to boost local Earth monitoring capabilities where possible and partner with other large scientific organizations outside the US.

What is at risk?

Forecasting weather and climate isn't simple. To produce accurate forecasts, scientists rely on Earth observation systems which monitor changes to Earth's . Much of this vital data is gathered by satellites, augmented by ocean data from thousands of which capture data on ocean temperatures and salinity. Using this data to model the complexity of the Earth system requires research expertise and supercomputers.

This year, the US government has announced sweeping cuts which could significantly degrade Earth monitoring data gathering and availability.

In March 2025, the administration culled at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Two months later, cuts were announced for NASA, including their missions and to the , with a proposed to .

In June, still deeper cuts for NOAA. These would see the agency's section dismantled and parts moved to the National Weather Service and the National Oceans Service. If these cuts are approved, they would cut NOAA funding by about 25%.

The data and modeling capabilities at risk include:

• of data from US defense force weather satellites from July 31 onward. Australia uses this data to monitor , climate and . The data has also been used for Australian forecast models.
• Funding to the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System. This the Global Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, which produces key components of weather and climate models used by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.
• The is scheduled . Australia this lab's data to declare every El Niño and La Niña for the past 30 years.
• Planned shutdown of the Global Monitoring Laboratory, including of Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory and Antarctic air monitoring. This will increase Australia's dependence on its own atmospheric monitoring site at in Tasmania.
• Funding cuts for and . Until now, the US has funded more than half of the active in the oceans. These floats produce data crucial to Australia's .
• Plans to end the , which include collaborations with These cuts have been confirmed. If approved, they will massively disrupt global advances in weather, climate and ocean knowledge.
• Planned cuts to , which would affect collaborative .
• US withdrawal from the and UNESCO (including the ), and uncertainty around for the United Nations and its World Meteorological Organization (WMO). At present, the US is the WMO's .

Maintaining Australian capabilities is not a given

Making accurate forecasts requires high-quality global observations.

Forecasts will inevitably get worse if data sources are restricted or stopped. During extreme weather events, this will pose a real risk to life.

The loss of experienced US staff could also lead to a stagnation in forecasting advances, especially for extreme weather. Many Australian scientists working on forecast improvements collaborate with US colleagues.

If some or all of these cuts take place, the flow-on effects for Australian meteorology and climate science will be substantial.

In response, Australian leaders should:

1. Assess the immediate risks to Australia's weather, climate and ocean capabilities from these changes in the US.
2. Assess where Australia can best lift national capabilities in research, modeling and observations.
3. Expand data sharing and collaboration with , , , and the . Each of these has established satellite observing programs which cover Australia.
4. Strengthen investment and partnership in international programs such as the , the EU's , the and the .

The future

America's sweeping cuts to science will have large ripple effects. Losing these capabilities and expertise will be a significant setback for researchers in the US, Australia and worldwide. The cuts come at a time when extreme weather and damage from climate change is intensifying. Early warnings .

To meet the ever more urgent need for reliable forecasting and modeling, Australia can no longer rely on US data and expertise. It's time to boost local capabilities and expand vital alliances.