麻豆淫院

Since the rise of the internet and social media, society has become well-acquainted with the idea of "virality" as the rapid spread of ideas and information (or misinformation). The relatively recent COVID-19 pandemic also reminded modern society of how rapidly viruses spread and how they impact society.

As it turns out, the idea of information spreading like a virus is not just an apt metaphor鈥攊nformation virality can also be scientifically modeled in the same way as an actual virus.

One of the better known "viral outbreaks" of misinformation in history is the "Great Fear of 1789." In a matter of only a couple of weeks, between July 20, 1789 and August 6, 1789, rumors that the aristocracy were planning to starve the peasants spread throughout France, leading to panic, unrest, and riots.

While this conspiracy was not based in fact, this time period was rife with unrest between the peasantry and aristocracy and the event played a key role in the French Revolution, eventually leading to the collapse of feudalism.

Much debate and confusion has surrounded the manner in which the Great Fear spread so quickly. However, in a new study, in Nature, a team of researchers have taken a different approach at figuring out this mystery by modeling the spread of the rumors circulated during the Great Fear of 1789 with the same epidemiological approach used to study the transmission of viruses.

The team mapped out and digitized the spread of the rumors with the help of detailed historical documents from , who archived locations and times where historical sources confirm that the rumors had spread.

The team then used epidemiological models to analyze the spread and calculate key parameters like the basic reproduction number, defined as the expected number of cases spread by one person in a population in which all individuals are susceptible to the "infection."

The study found that the spread of the Great Fear did indeed closely follow patterns of infectious disease. The researchers calculated that the rumors spread with a basic reproduction number of 1.5 and peaked on July 30, then rapidly declined.

They also identified a series of "risk factors" associated with areas of the highest transmission, which included towns that were more populous, literate, and wealthier, and where land ownership was more concentrated and wheat prices were higher. Transmission often occurred along main roads and postal routes and also in "distinct waves of contagion."

The study authors note the similarity of spread between rumors and disease within highly populated areas, saying, "This is a general property of infectious diseases, where well-connected centers with large populations are likely to become the hub for disease transmission."

When speaking on the debate of whether this event was either emotionally charged or the result of a political motivation, the study authors note, "This picture is consistent with interpretation of the Great Fear as a politically driven event, rooted in rational behavior and responding to the local feudal legal environment, and is in contrast to the idea of an emotional outburst."

While it's likely that the transmission mapping involved in the study is incomplete due to missing historical records, this study helps to provide a framework for understanding how rumors and misinformation can drive social and political change.

This approach might be applied to other historical or modern rumor and insurrection events, perhaps with some modifications to better fit the digital means of transmission used today.

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