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Over the next few decades, climate change will pose new threats around the world. Researchers from Climate Analytics (Berlin) and Radboud University's Global Data Lab (GDL) have developed long-term projections of global climate vulnerability, extending to the year 2100. Their findings, in Scientific Data, present one of the most comprehensive assessments of socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change to date.

The work builds on the Global Data Lab Vulnerability Index (GVI), introduced last year. The GVI moves beyond conventional approaches that primarily assess exposure to physical climate hazards, integrating seven socioeconomic dimensions of vulnerability, including the economy, education, health, gender and infrastructure, to provide a more complete picture of the human and societal dimensions of vulnerability.

"The GVI quantifies how societies are likely to respond to climate hazards," explains Dr. Janine Huisman, researcher at Radboud University and first author of the study. "By highlighting the human components of vulnerability, the index provides crucial insight into which communities may be least prepared for climate impacts."

"Countries with a higher proportion of well-educated and healthy citizens can better anticipate and adapt to the changes required," Huisman notes. "Likewise, better infrastructure enables faster and more effective disaster response."

Socioeconomic vulnerability into the future

To capture long-term dynamics, the research team modeled vulnerability under three future climate scenarios, ranging from continued reliance on fossil fuels to a full transition to renewable energy.

Dr. Rosanne Martyr, senior scientist at Climate Analytics, and paper co-author, adds, "This allows policymakers and scholars to assess whether countries remain vulnerable under traditional energy use patterns, or whether vulnerabilities persist even in a rapid transition to renewable energy."

The project was initiated at the request of the Vulnerable Twenty (V20) group of nations, which collectively represent 20% of the global population yet account for only 5% of carbon emissions. The GVI helps illuminate why these nations face disproportionate risks under varying climate futures.

Subnational vulnerability

Recognizing that vulnerability is not evenly distributed within countries, a next step will be to extend the GVI to the subnational level. Prof. Jeroen Smits of Radboud University and also co-author, adds, "Because vulnerability levels vary greatly within countries, this finer-grained perspective will enable far more targeted and effective adaptation strategies."

The GVI is freely accessible via the Global Data Lab website, making it a valuable resource for researchers, policymakers, and international organizations. "We hope the index will become a central tool in global climate assessments, guiding interventions to where they are most urgently needed," Smits concludes.