Âé¶¹ÒùÔº


Report: We're reaching Earth's climate tipping points, and more are on the way

melting glacier
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Large areas of the world could soon become unrecognizable if global temperatures continue to rise.

From the loss of to the shutdown of major , shifts in Earth's climate and ecosystems will have untold consequences for billions of people across the world.

The race is on to limit the damage from climate change.

Since the Industrial Revolution, Earth has warmed by around 1.4°C as have trapped more of the planet's heat. Without urgent changes, our planet will soon breach the 1.5°C limit that countries around the world pledged to try and limit to back in 2015.

A new report, released ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil next month, shows that breaking this limit is anything but symbolic. The ever-hotter climate is likely to start triggering more around the world and causing changes that are very difficult to come back from.

Glaciers will melt, rainforests will vanish and ocean currents will collapse if climate change continues unabated. Some of these tipping points may already have been crossed, with coral reefs likely to almost entirely disappear by 2100 if nothing is done to cool the world back towards 1.2°C.

While the challenges we face are significant, the researchers behind the report also found reason for hope. Renewable energy and electric vehicles are rapidly rolling out across the world and growing increasingly cheap, even as some countries try to renege on their climate promises.

Report lead Professor Tim Lenton, who heads up the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, says that COP30 needs to take immediate action to prevent climate tipping points from being crossed.

"We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature," Tim explains. "This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide."

"In the two years since the first Global Tipping Points Report, there has been a radical global acceleration in some areas, including the uptake of solar power and electric vehicles. But we need to do more—and move faster—to seize positive tipping point opportunities."

"By doing so, we can drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions and tip the world away from catastrophic tipping points and towards a thriving, sustainable future."

What impacts will climate tipping points have?

Every fraction of a degree of warming edges Earth towards triggering all kinds of climate tipping points, and the report lays out their consequences. Billions of people across the world will face the impacts of more extreme weather, worse food security and rising sea levels if Earth's climate systems shift.

One of these tipping points is already in progress, with coral reef ecosystems on their way to being wiped out for good. , with almost 85% of reefs affected since it began in 2023.

With corals supporting up to 40% of all marine life, and generating trillions of pounds from tourism and fisheries, the loss of these ecosystems would be devastating. Unfortunately, the report estimates that their tipping point was crossed when rose above 1.2°C and are set to decline further in the coming century.

Other tipping points, such as the loss of large numbers of the world's glaciers and resulting sea level rise are also largely locked in without urgent action to reach net zero emissions. Further tipping points, such as the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the collapse of the sub-polar gyre current, are likely to take effect as the world warms past 1.5°C.

As each tipping point is triggered, others fall like dominoes. For example, the melting of permafrost will release carbon dioxide which has been locked away for millennia, heating the planet further. This makes it more likely that other tipping points like the melting of Arctic ice will then occur.

The most severe tipping point mentioned in the report is an ocean current known as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This regulates the temperature of Europe and North America and stabilizes almost half of the other known tipping points. If climate change causes it to collapse then the continents would face extreme climate shifts beyond anything our societies have ever seen.

The exact point this tipping point will trigger, however, isn't known. Some estimates suggest the collapse of the AMOC is already in progress, while others predict that it will only falter at much higher temperatures. Report co-author Dr. Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, says that the risks involved mean more research and policy changes are needed.

"Current policy thinking doesn't usually take tipping points into account," Manjana adds. "Tipping points present distinct governance challenges compared to other aspects of climate change or environmental decline, requiring both governance innovations and reforms of existing institutions."

Harnessing tipping points for good

Fortunately, the ability to stop these tipping points from triggering is within our grasp. The report identified what it described as 'positive' tipping points in the growth of net zero industries that can accelerate the transition to a greener future.

For instance, the capacity of solar power is currently doubling every two to three years as people everywhere harness this free, renewable energy from the sun. These high levels of uptake are driving down costs, in turn making even more affordable.

As have become more popular, it's driven more investment in battery technology to store energy for use during nighttime and less sunny periods. Battery storage prices have fallen by 84% in the past decade while their capacity has increased.

These positive tipping points can also lead to other beneficial changes. Solar power becoming more affordable has given more of the world access to electricity, helping to boost economies and power lifesaving equipment in even the remotest areas.

The report also calls for more investment to help other sustainable industries reach their own tipping points, from home heat pumps to greener agriculture. Many aren't that far from becoming self-sustaining, where high demand will drive innovation and lower prices for everyone.

How quickly they'll reach this point is entirely within the power of the world's governments, which are set to meet at COP30 in Brazil in November. The scientists behind the report are working with the summit's leaders to ensure that tipping points, both good and bad, are on the agenda.

Citation: Report: We're reaching Earth's climate tipping points, and more are on the way (2025, October 16) retrieved 16 October 2025 from /news/2025-10-earth-climate.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.

Explore further

World on course to trigger multiple climate 'tipping points' unless action accelerates, research warns

6 shares

Feedback to editors