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People who have lived through floods, heat waves, or other climate-related disasters are significantly more likely to view climate change as a very serious threat, according to new research from the University of Amsterdam, in Environmental Research Letters.

The study, by Fabian Dablander from the UvA's new climate institute SEVEN, analyzed nationally representative survey data from more than 128,000 people across 142 countries. The results show a clear and consistent pattern: individuals who had personally experienced a climate-related hazard in the past five years were more inclined to describe climate change as a very serious threat compared to those in the same country who had not lived through such events.

Floods, droughts, heat waves

One striking finding is the powerful effect of heat waves on risk perception. Experiencing a heat wave increased the likelihood of seeing climate change as a serious danger to about the same extent as having a university education鈥攁 factor long recognized as one of the strongest predictors of climate awareness.

The effect of floods, droughts, and heat waves showed large variation across countries, while other hazards such as hurricanes and wildfires produced more consistent reactions worldwide. Even relatively infrequent events like mudslides were associated with heightened risk perception, demonstrating the broad psychological impact of experiencing natural hazards.

Influence of political leadership and cultural narratives

But the results also show that while individual experiences with disasters matter deeply, they do not always scale up neatly to the national level. Countries with widespread exposure to climate-related hazards do not necessarily have higher overall levels of climate risk perception. For example, although flooding is the most common hazard worldwide, national concern about climate change remains relatively low in some flood-prone regions. This suggests that media coverage, political leadership and cultural narratives strongly influence how people make sense of their experiences.

Differences were also apparent across regions. People in South America were the most likely to view climate change as a very serious threat, with nearly three-quarters of those surveyed saying so, whereas in Europe the figure was closer to half. Meanwhile, residents of Oceania reported the highest overall rates of hazard experience, with more than four in ten saying they had lived through at least one extreme event in the past five years. Europe had the lowest rates of people reporting hazard experience, at two out of ten.

A psychological gateway

"Personal experiences cut through abstract statistics and political debates," says Dablander. "When someone has lived through a devastating flood or heat wave, the risks of climate change become much more tangible and harder to dismiss." Dablander describes such experiences as a psychological "gateway" that can transform climate change from a distant concept into a pressing personal reality.

The implications are significant for public debate and policy. Although individuals who endure extreme events are more likely to take climate risks seriously, these personal experiences alone may not be enough to build national consensus. Without effective communication and political leadership, even widespread exposure to hazards may fail to galvanize the collective action needed to address the climate crisis.

140 countries

The research analyzed data from the 2023 World Risk Poll conducted by Lloyd's Register Foundation and Gallup. By examining hazard experiences alongside education, income, and resilience across more than 140 countries, the study provides the most comprehensive global picture yet of how climate impacts are shaping risk perceptions.

"Billions of people are already living with the impacts of climate change," says Dablander. "As these experiences accumulate, we may see rising demand for climate action. But without political leadership and media willing to connect the dots, those experiences alone won't drive the transformation we need."