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February 28, 2025

China's forests are absorbing carbon—but for how long?

AGC storage in China's natural forests. (a) AGC storage in 2030; (b) AGC storage in 2060; (c) Change in AGC storage from 2030 to 2060; (d) Histograms of AGC storage and a line graph of AGC sequestration rates at five-year intervals from 2020 to 2060. Error bars represent SD (standard deviation). Credit: Qinghua Guo et al.
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AGC storage in China's natural forests. (a) AGC storage in 2030; (b) AGC storage in 2060; (c) Change in AGC storage from 2030 to 2060; (d) Histograms of AGC storage and a line graph of AGC sequestration rates at five-year intervals from 2020 to 2060. Error bars represent SD (standard deviation). Credit: Qinghua Guo et al.

China's natural forests play a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide and fighting climate change. But how much more carbon can they store? A new in Forest Ecosystems provides a detailed estimate, revealing that while China's natural forests will continue to capture carbon, their ability to do so is slowing down.

To estimate future carbon sequestration, the research team combined multi-source with on-the-ground forest surveys. Using biomass and forest age data, they developed models to predict how much aboveground carbon China's natural forests could store under optimal conditions.

Unlike previous studies that relied on broad-scale estimations, this study mapped carbon storage at a 0.1° resolution, revealing significant regional differences. The warm temperate deciduous broadleaf forest zone, which contains mostly young forests, is expected to see the largest increase in carbon storage—rising by 26.36% by 2060. In contrast, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Alpine forests, which are largely mature, will show only a 0.74% increase.

"We found that forests at different growth stages have very different carbon storage potential," said Prof. Qinghua Guo, the corresponding author. "Younger forests still have room to grow, while older ones are reaching their limit."

China has invested heavily in natural forest protection and reforestation, but this study suggests that simply increasing forest area isn't enough. With sequestration slowing, the key will be protecting while also ensuring younger forests thrive. Climate change, wildfires, and droughts could further affect forest carbon storage, making long-term monitoring essential.

More information: Yixuan Zhang et al, Spatio-temporal dynamics of future aboveground carbon stocks in natural forests of China, Forest Ecosystems (2025).

Provided by Tsinghua University Press

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China's natural forests are crucial for carbon dioxide absorption, but their sequestration capacity is slowing. Using satellite data and forest surveys, models predict that while young forests, particularly in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaf zone, will see significant carbon storage increases, mature forests like those on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will show minimal growth. Protecting old-growth forests and supporting younger ones is vital, as climate change and environmental factors could impact future carbon storage.

This summary was automatically generated using LLM.