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Research from the University of New Hampshire reports that in 2024 there were 5.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than expected given prior patterns—a significant jump from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022. This shift in fertility patterns has contributed to 11.8 million fewer births than expected in the past 17 years.

"Childless rates increased the most among women under 30, where fertility rate declines were also greatest," said Kenneth Johnson, professor of sociology and senior demographer at UNH's Carsey School of Public Policy. "In 2024, there were 4 million more women aged 20–39 than in 2006, but 7 million fewer have given birth—that's an increase of 45%."

Johnson, who authored the , analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey from 2006 to 2024 as well as birth and fertility data from the National Center for Health Statistics. He found that in contrast to the significant increase in childless rates among women under 30, childless rates increased only modestly among women in their 30s.

Fertility rates decreased minimally among women in their early 30s and increased modestly among women 35 to 49. However, the fertility gains among older women were not large enough to offset the significant fertility declines and increased childlessness among the younger women.

"The critical question is what kind of impact will this have on society," said Johnson. "While it's possible that women who are currently delaying having children may still have them, the substantial rise in the proportion of childless women contributes to something called the 'demographic cliff' where the decision to not have children could have significant implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses and eventually for the labor force."

Data show that if the fertility patterns happening just before the Great Depression had continued, 4.4 million (25%) more women aged 20–39 would have had at least two children in 2024, and 1.3 million (15%) more women would have had a single child.

In addition to the Great Recession and COVID, shifting social, demographic, economic and cultural factors have influenced attitudes about fertility, marriage and children. These include greater educational and employment opportunities for women, the rapid increase in housing costs, the growing expense of children, limited access to child care and family leave and changing patterns of cohabitation and immigration.