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A new study led by Professor Diego Garzia of the University of Lausanne, in Public Opinion Quarterly, reveals a major shift in electoral motivation. In many Western democracies, voters are now more driven by opposition to their political adversaries than by support for their own side. This phenomenon marks a move away from ideological disagreement toward an emotionally charged dynamic rooted in rejection and hostility, an evolution that may ultimately weaken the very foundations of democratic debate.

The study draws on an unprecedented dataset encompassing 143 national elections held between 1961 and 2022 in twelve Western democracies: Germany, Canada, Denmark, Spain, the United States, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Switzerland. These data were compiled from national post-election studies conducted over six decades and harmonized to ensure cross-country comparability over time.

Measuring the love of the camp and the hatred of the opposition

Central to the analysis is a longstanding measurement tool in political science: the "feeling thermometer." This survey item asks voters to rate their emotional warmth or coldness toward political parties or leaders on a 0–10 scale. From these ratings, the researchers derived two essential metrics: in-party affect (the score given to the most liked party) and out-party affect (the weighted average score of all other parties, based on vote shares).

To evaluate emotional intensity, both scores were recalibrated relative to the neutral midpoint (5), producing two refined indicators: "in-party love" and "out-party hate." A final index, the difference between the two, ranges from -10 (pure hostility) to +10 (pure loyalty). Positive scores reflect stronger emotional attachment to one's party; negative scores indicate that opposition-driven sentiment dominates.

Behind the numbers: How the study was done

The Lausanne team didn't conduct their own surveys. They relied on decades of existing national election studies conducted by research institutions after nearly every national election since the 1960s. These studies, such as the American National Election Studies (ANES) and the British Election Study (BES), routinely include the "feeling thermometer" to measure emotional attitudes toward political parties or leaders.

The researchers gathered and standardized this data from 143 elections in 12 countries, rescaling all thermometer scores to a common 0–10 scale. They then applied a refined methodology to calculate "in-party love" and "out-party hate" based on how far scores deviate from a neutral point. The key insight: by subtracting one from the other, they revealed whether voter behavior is driven more by loyalty or hostility. In an increasing number of democracies, it's the latter.

Rejection is winning: A clear and troubling trend

The data reveal a consistent and sobering trend: voters' feelings toward out-parties have declined in nine out of twelve countries, most sharply in Canada, Germany, Portugal, Spain, the UK, and the US. While feelings toward one's own party have also decreased, they have done so more slowly. In several countries, including the US, Canada, Greece, Italy, and Spain, voters now express more hostility toward their opponents than warmth toward their own party.

This reversal is captured by the index of affective polarity, which has steadily dropped below zero in recent elections. The emotional core of politics is no longer centered on loyalty, but on rejection. Affective polarization is no longer just strong, it is increasingly asymmetrical and negative.

What this means for democracy

This emotional shift in electoral behavior has profound implications. As mutual animosity deepens, public discourse hardens, compromise weakens, and democratic legitimacy erodes. Recent elections reflect this dynamic: from the rise of the Rassemblement National in France and the AfD in Germany to the divisive rhetoric of Meloni in Italy and the entrenched hostility between Biden and Trump in the US democracies are increasingly shaped by what voters oppose, not what they support.

A new framework for understanding political emotion

This study offers more than a new set of findings it introduces a vital methodological advance. By building on a measure developed by political scientist Steven Finkel and colleagues, the Lausanne team expands both the geographic and historical scope of research on affective polarization. Earlier studies typically measured emotional distance between parties; this one reveals what drives that distance and confirms that negative sentiment is the dominant force in modern democracies.

Understanding this shift is essential as Western societies grapple with polarization and democratic disillusionment. This research provides both a warning and a framework: to grasp where democracy is headed, we must look not only at what voters believe but how they feel.